INDIA, CHINA AND PAKISTAN: UNEASY EQUATIONS
COMMENTARY ARCHIVES, 9 Oct 2009
Some of the recent developments bring to the fore the uneasy nature of regional dynamics in the Indian subcontinent with the powers India, China and Pakistan playing their national cards vigorously.
Pakistan-China agreement to develop hydroelectric project at Bunji in the Kashmir currently under the control of Pakistan, India’s objection to Pakistan’s granting of autonomous status to Gilgit-Baltistan areas of Kashmir, reported Chinese intrusion into Indian side of the line of actual control, and China’s objection to Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh in India are some of the recent developments that indicate the hot nature of politics in the region.
These developments portray a picture that the coming months may not be smooth in regional equations unless these countries adopt a cooperative approach to resolve these issues. First, the case of dam in Kashmir. The agreement to build dam was reached during Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari’s visit to China from 21-24 August 2009.
As per the agreement both the countries will develop the hydroelectric project in the region of Astore district to generate about 7000 MW of electricity. On 11 September 2009 India officially lodged a protest by summoning the Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan and also ordered its embassy in Islamabad to protest against the deal. India’s argument against the deal is many-fold.
First, the region is legally not part of Pakistan. Even if Pakistan rejects India’s claim that it is not part of territory of India the United Nations has labelled the territory disputed. Can then China and Pakistan build the dam in a disputed area, while on the same ground China has blocked India’s move to get loans from Asian Development Bank to build dam in Arunachal Pradesh?
Second, it is a matter which concerns not only Pakistan but also India as well. Kashmir’s leaders like Yasin Malik have strongly protested against the recent manoeuvres of Pakistan in the region. Pakistan rejects India’s protests on the ground that India has no locus standi on the matter, and it is going ahead to build the dam. It can be noted here that currently Kashmir is divided between India, Pakistan and China. In an agreement in 1963 Pakistan had ceded more than 5000 sq km of area of Kashmir to China.
Third, India has strongly objected Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance Order 2009 which provides autonomy to Gilgit-Baltistan areas of Kashmir. India has called the move a sham made to avoid the real issue and lodged official protests. Pakistan has retaliated by saying India has no locus standi on this matter. Kashmir has always been a bone of contention between the two neighbours. India sees Pakistan-China relations with apprehensions as China supplies arms and weapons to Pakistan. In fact Pakistan’s nuclear programme could not have been successful without assistance from China.
Besides, China has declined to call terrorism in Kashmir by name, and agrees with Pakistan it is a genuine freedom struggle. That has further soured the relations between India and China. India argues how terrorism in Kashmir and terrorism in Xinjiang can be viewed differently while the source and designs remain similar. To add spice to these developments, former Pak President Pervez Musharraf in an interview on 14 September 2009 admitted Pakistan has diverted aids meant for socio-economic development to building weapons to fight adversaries, including India.
India has strongly protested against this diversion and appealed to the US to rethink about its strategy of providing aids to Pakistan. The news of shelling on 12 September 2009 from Pakistan side of Kashmir towards Attari sector of India has further accentuated the tense relations. Lack of progress in bringing to books the culprits of the Mumbai terror attack of November 2008 orchestrated from the Pak soil too has contributed to the tense nature of the relations.
Fourth, there are reports of Chinese intrusion into India’s territory. Since the India-China war of 1962, the border has remained unsettled with differing interpretations about its clear demarcation. China has declined to accept the Mac Mohan line drawn in 1914 between Indian and China as a just line. Reportedly from April 2009 onwards there are about 400 violations of the border.
One recent article in a semi-official Chinese website predicting the division of India into 15-20 sovereign states has not been received well by the Indian public and leaders. This has further led to tensions. Despite the joint mechanism between the two countries to deliberate on the border issue, and despite several meetings, the issue still remains unresolved with rising uncertainty about its future.
Reportedly, two former Indian foreign secretaries, Shyam Saran and Shiv Shankar Menon have advocated that India and China should collaborate along with other stakeholders in shaping the security architecture in the Indian Ocean region. Though officially India has not stated this idea of collaboration, but it remains to be seen how India and China can cooperate amidst the deficit in mutual trust.
Fifth, China on 11 September 2009 objected to Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh. China has always looked with suspicion Dalai Lama’s activities in India. Dalai Lama left Tibet in 1959 and took shelter in India. China believes the presence of Dalai Lama in India is detrimental to its national interest.
The recent disturbances in Xinjiang further raised the apprehension level of China against separatism. Reportedly, China has expressed interest in India’s cooperation in its fight against terrorism in Xinjiang. How far it will be successful only the coming days can say. More importantly, it is the lack of mutual trust and confidence that have mostly marred the effectiveness of joint mechanisms.
Despite robust economic relations between India and China at about $52 billion annual trade, both the countries somehow lack the collaborative spirit to resolve contentious issues. There appears to be an inverse relationship between the political relationship and economic relationship between the two countries.
The case of India-Pakistan relations is even more complicated despite both countries sharing many commonalities. It is impossible to change neighbours and also it is almost impossible to resolve the issues by military means in the post-cold war world order. Hence, the best ways to resolve issues are dialogue and deliberation. The uneasy equations in the region can only be moderated when all the three countries develop a common framework for negotiation of issues at stake. Undoubtedly it is a daunting task.
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Dr Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra is a research faculty at the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai, India.
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