The Kashmir Imbroglio: Thinking the Unthinkable

TRANSCEND MEMBERS, 18 Oct 2010

Vithal Rajan – TRANSCEND Media Service

Back in the bad old days of the Cold War, the heaviest of the backroom hawks of the Pentagon, Herman Kahn, coined the phrase ‘thinking the unthinkable,’ meaning  strategies for wiping out the Soviet Union with nukes. Luckily for all of us, Ronald Reagan had a better idea, the same result could be achieved by an undeclared economic war and arms race that would force the communists to scratch themselves out of the tournament.

Can we use similar hard-line approaches to review the Kashmir imbroglio? The first question to ask is, do Indians need Kashmir? By Indians, we mean the ordinary poor, and the struggling middle-classes. The answer clearly is a resounding No! There are no ‘resources’ of any kind from Kashmir, the supply of which is crucial for the well-being of Indians. The American people are dependent on oil from the Middle-East, and that is the real reason for their hegemonic control over the region. Indians have no such reason to retain control of Kashmir.

If Indians troops are out of Kashmir, would it jeopardize the security of Indians? Not really. The mountainous barrier between the Kashmir Valley and India is a better defensive line to guard than the present long untenable frontier of the LOC. Should India be there in Kashmir against all odds out of moral obligation, because the people of the valley are dependent on their protection? No, is the answer once again, because the people there do not consider themselves ‘Indians,’ and wish all Indians to go to the devil, perhaps unjustly, but that is the end result of poor governance, high-handedness, cruelty, and a bankrupt diplomatic policy.

Could Indian withdrawal from Kashmir initiate Dulles’s nightmare of a domino effect, with all Indian Muslims rising up as one man to demand more Partitions? While few Indian Muslims have any reason to thank the Indian State for the non-benign neglect they have received over 60 years, they are spread thinly everywhere and new Partitions are a geographical impracticality. Would withdrawal increase militancy? Most probably, because discontent against corrupt, elitist, and non-democratic rule is widespread, not only among Muslims but across a wide section of the poor and middle-classes. Hanging onto the great economic resource drain of Kashmir will only worsen the situation. The government must cauterize the Kashmir wound, tighten military spending, and strictly prevent any more human rights abuses, to regain if possible acceptable standards of governance.

Let us ask another hard question. What will be lost along with Kashmir? An unreal and bloated sense of self-importance. It has taken Great Britain sixty years to realize it is no longer the centre of an empire. Indian rulers have yet to realize they are no longer in charge of ‘the jewel in the crown.’ Indians are not the leaders of Asia – the Chinese are. If India wishes to be considered a good second to China, it should not fritter away resources on nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, or commonwealth games. India should use scarce resources where they are most needed, to help people raise themselves out of poverty. And India should not play dirty pool with China, and harbour Tibetan governments in exile. Let it not be forgotten that one of the causes of the India-China border war of 1962 was the covert activities of the CIA from Indian bases. Yes, it is sad, the Buddha lived in India 2500 years ago, but none are true to his vision, nor are the Tibetans. India should mend its fences pronto with China, and accept the glaring fact that they are bigger, and better  – just as it wants Pakistan to acknowledge its leadership.

Would not letting Kashmir go, give the palm to Pakistan, India’s inveterate enemy? On the contrary, it might catastrophically weaken its real enemy, and the real enemy of the people of Pakistan, and dismantle his offensive structures. The Pakistani people have been held in thrall by a small corrupt military dictatorship, itself a captive of its mafia-style intelligence heads, which in turn are in cahoots with a medieval and benighted tribal terrorist force, which in turn is living on the bounty of drug dealers. For the last fifty years or so America, for its own byzantine reasons, has maintained this whole awful structure which oppresses the people of Pakistan and suppresses the development trends that are fast changing the face of Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Iran, and even Iraq till the Americans set the clock back a few decades.  Will America discontinue support for this militaristic cabal now that they have experienced in 9/11 the result of their own policies? Unlikely, for they are too Micawberish to change course. They will keep hoping that by supporting the Pakistan military, its ISI, and through it the Taliban, while at the same time giving alms to the unhappy Karzai, somehow something will turn up. They are dead wrong as they always have been. Nothing awaits them or India but sorrow.

The Pakistan military has propped up their power over people by rattling the bogey of the Indian threat. If Indians end the Kashmir siege unilaterally, the Pakistani military will lose currency with their oppressed people. Yes, but India should not do it stupidly, or in a shamefaced manner. Since everyone else in reality has been fishing in Kashmir’s troubled waters, let India make the security of the Valley an International issue which requires international guarantees from everyone else, The USA, and NATO, China, Pakistan, Russia, and all other nearby neighbours. Let India insist on a UN Peace Keeping Force, and annual subventions from Pakistan and others including India, to help the Kashmiris. India could insist that South Asia should be made a nuclear weapons free zone, retaining crushing military superiority. Let it ask for the Pakistan administered part of Kashmir to be simultaneously liberated, but since the Pakistani military cannot possibly accept that demand without immediately abdicating all power, India might have to redraw the frontiers, absorbing Jammu and Ladakh into India without any special status. Whatever the final shape of the outcome, India must be proactive in demanding an immediate international settlement of a problem created by Pandit Nehru, and sustained by America, and China.

A Note after Publication in India

The above-mentioned article was published in The Hindu, October 10, 2010, a national newspaper in India. I was surprised at the variety and number of responses I received. I think there are some lessons to be learnt for people involved in conflict resolution and peace studies even from this short experience. I give below a few of my personal learnings.

1. The number of quick responses shows that Indians are not apathetic, and that a democratic tradition flourishes.
2. Even the brief abusive replies show that the abuse stems from a patriotic concern.
3. However, what is worrying is that some were not able to articulate their anger, especially the younger writers. Such helplessness could lead to violent action as a release. Perhaps, such feelings of helplessness lead to riots, and this also indicates that instead of sweepings uncomfortable things under the carpet, an open vigorous debate may lessen the chances of conflict, but this is only a conjecture.
4. It was personally interesting to me that few among my friends wrote back. Again, I conjecture that this could be because of the following reasons: [A] if they disagreed with me, politeness prevented them from saying so. Perhaps, such politeness in traditional societies enables powerful, articulate and prejudiced people to rise to power without initial challenges and debate among friends which could have deflated their egos. [B] Even more worrying is the thought that my friends kept quiet though they agreed with me, because it is not ‘politic’ to do so. If this is the case, the problem must be flagged, for it speaks ill of democratic practice. People must openly show the courage of their convictions.
5. A surprising learning for me was that the best and most measured responses came from army officers. This speaks well of the Indian army’s quality, training and discipline. It reminds me of Russian reports from World War II that German combat troops on the whole behaved very well while most of the atrocities were committed later by occupation troops. I have also heard from UN peace negotiators in Srilanka that atrocities occurred because of the lack of training. The horrors of the Congo and Rwanda bear witness to this. However, in my own experience in Northern Ireland, it was the crack British Paras who created trouble, and not the ordinary English infantry, perhaps because the Paras were under orders to destroy the IRA?
6. There was also a noticeable stereotyping of ‘all Muslims,’ among some respondents. This is worrisome. I remember reading Hannah Arendt who pointed out that such stereotyping was present against the Jews in Berlin even in the late 19^th century. Should not the educational system tackle such lazy thinking right from primary school, and how is this to be done?
7. A surprisingly common assumption in almost all responses was that I was asking for Kashmir to be handed over to Pakistan, though it is clear that there was no such intention. A conjecture that arises is that when a highly emotional, disturbing, and hence ‘threatening subject’ is discussed, the human mind reacts more emotionally than logically. It seizes on the key fear, and this fear dictates further responses.
8. It is also to be conjectured that such an emotional mental state may be present in people in pre-riot situations. When they see, for instance, the stereotyped ‘other’ approaching them in the street, emotional fear may lead them to conclude that the ‘other’ is approaching them with malicious intent, and the person gets into the flight or fight mode. Shakespeare brings this out beautifully in the opening sequence of Romeo and Juliet when the servants of the Capulets and the Montagues meet. ‘Sir, do you bite your thumb at me? No, Sir, but I do bite my thumb!’ and on till they fight.
9. Perhaps, politicians all over the world exploit this to create lazy temporary perceptions in the interest of winning popularity and power?
10. Switzerland is the only country in world that holds national referendums on all critical issues, engendering full-scale discussions. It is worthwhile studying how this came about historically. They were also divided by two religions [but unlike Ireland were not an oppressed colony but mountain people who came together to fight the common threat of the Austrian Empire]. They have three main languages and varying political and cultural traditions in their self-governing cantons. I conjecture that local self-governance has led to greater and stronger democracy, and hence Indians must do more to implement the 73^rd and 74^th amendments to the Constitution, which empower village-level agencies.
11. While the liberal voice was in the majority of responses, it was also discernable that there was an ‘organised, possibly right-wing Hindu element’ in strong rebuttal. It is interesting to note that ‘they’ might have an agenda to counter any contradictory opinion, even in chance letters to the editor.
12. Even more disturbing seemed to be the presence of a ‘pro-American’ educated voice. Former Indian ambassador, Mr Bhadrakumar, has already openly cautioned Indians that there is a paid and organized pro-American, maybe even ‘pro-Pentagon,’ claque widely operating in India which wants to whip up anti-China Cold War sentiments. Apart from a global containment of Chinese economic power, this could also indicate that the Pentagon-CIA does not wish for any political settlement of problems in South Asia. They may wish to maintain things on the boil to maintain the power of the Pakistani military for maintaining a ring of client states around Middle Eastern oil.

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Vithal Rajan, Ph.D.[L.S.E.], worked as a mediator for the church in Belfast; as faculty at The School of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, and as Executive Director, the Right Livelihood Award Foundation. He has founded several Indian NGOs. He is an Officer of the Order of Canada.

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 18 Oct 2010.

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