Annual Strategic Brief 2016: “Geopolitics in the Middle East”

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 4 Jul 2016

Institute for Islamic Strategic Affairs – TRANSCEND Media Service

29 Jun 2016

Executive Summary

(Click Here to Read the Full Paper)

This Ibn Khaldun paper is part of the annual strategic paper series that has been produced each year by our institute since 2013. Each paper looks at the key strategic development(s) in the Islamic world. This year the focus is on the geopolitics in the greater Middle East. The region is going through seismic changes and what happens in the greater Middle East will establish the emerging global order(s).

Yet, there is a very little understanding of what actually is happening in the region. Simple explanations and ‘quick-fix’ approaches has thus far dominated the media. Whether it’s the refugee crises, the focus on degrading the Islamic state (IS) or European security, little attention is being paid to the enormous complexity to the crises in the region.

This paper seeks to understand these complex issues and challenges, and presents a broad, substantial and accurate understanding of the region.

The paper builds on following main arguments (see the figure below):

• The issues and problems in the Middle East are very complex.  To view the region superficially (i.e. through the prism of terrorism, refugee crises or interest led politics) does not do justice to our understanding.
• The region is facing multiple internal and external struggles simultaneously.
• The dysfunctional international system (i.e. lack of effective global and regional governance, issues and interested led politics by most international player etc.) only adds to the complexities in the Middle East and is a considerable component of the problem.

Interior & Exterior Struggles (Chapters 1-5)

The Dysfunctional International System & the Refugee Crisis (Chapters 6 & 7)

Conclusions & Policy Recommendations (Chapter 8)

Go to Original – iisa.org.uk

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