Studies on COVID-19 Lethality

COVID19 - CORONAVIRUS, 25 May 2020

Swiss Policy Research - TRANSCEND Media Service

 

 

 

20 May 2020 – Facts on Covid-19

1) Covid-19 infection fatality rates (IFR) based on antibody studies

Population-based antibody seroprevalence studies.

1) The adjusted IFR is 0.278% (see page 9 of study); 2) Based on 300 deaths.

2) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on controlled PCR studies

Controlled PCR studies in population subgroups.

3) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on models

Covid-19 IFR based on epidemiological models or predictions. These values are often higher than the actual values based on serological antibody studies (see above).

1) Based on 29% prevalence and 50,000 deaths; 2) The IFR is 0.50 excluding nursing homes; 3) Age-adjusted IFR based on US population.

4) Additional antibody and PCR studies

These studies typically determine the actual prevalence of recent or current Covid-19 infections in a population. In most cases, they find that Covid-19 is much more widespread than previously assumed, with most people showing no or only mild symptoms.

5) Median age of Covid-19 deaths per country

Half of all deaths were below, half were above the median age.

7) Hospitalization rate

Initial estimates based on Chinese data assumed a very high 20% hospitalization rate, which led to the strategy of ‘flattening the curve’ to avoid overburdening hospitals. However, population-based antibody studies (see above) have since shown that actual hospitalization rates are close to 1%, which is within the range of hospitalization rates for influenza (1 to 2%).

The US CDC found that Covid-19 hospitalization rates for people aged 65 and over are “within ranges of influenza hospitalization rates”, with rates slightly higher for people aged 18 to 64 and “much lower” (compared to influenza) for people under 18.

In local hotspots like New York City, the overall hospitalization rate based on antibody studies is about 2.5% (19.9% or 1.7 million people with antibodies and 43,000 hospitalizations by May 2), which is somewhat above a severe wave of influenza.

The much lower than expected hospitalization rate may explain why most Covid-19 ‘field hospitals’ even in hard-hit countries like the US, the UK and China remained largely empty.

8) Percentage of Covid-19 deaths in care homes per country

In many countries, deaths in care homes account for 30 to 60% of all additional deaths.

Source: Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes (LTC Covid, May 3, 2020)

9) Development of the epidemic

Even in countries without a lockdown, the epidemic reached its peak within a few weeks of the outbreak. However, many media showed cumulative deaths per day of report (left) instead of daily deaths per day of death (right), falsely implying an ever escalating situation.

See also

• Additional Covid-19 Antibody Serological Studies (Dr. Henrik Jarlov)
• Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates (Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine)
• Rate of positive Covid-19 tests per country over time (SPR)

Main article: Facts on Covid-19

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