Mongolia’s Geopolitical Shift
ASIA--PACIFIC, 16 Sep 2024
Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service
4 Sep 2024 – Russian President Putin visited Mongolia on 3-4 Sep. His first visit to Mongolia in five years is of global importance for two reasons.
The first is that Mongolia ignored the ICC (International Criminal Court) arrest warrant.
The second is that, as a spinoff from that, the United States’ attempt to turn Mongolia into a country hostile to Russia and China since last year has apparently failed, and this visit shows that Mongolia is likely to become friendly with Russia and China again.
The Plan to build a pipeline called “Siberian Power 2” to send natural gas from the gas fields on the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic to China via Mongolia has been in place since before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. However, in May of this year, the Mongolian government, reflecting its approach to the United States since last year, moved to withdraw from the construction plan by not including the construction of this pipeline in its five-year economic plan.
Mongolia pulls out, Russia and China can’t agree on Power of Siberia-2 | News.az
The United States immediately approached Mongolia just after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in the early spring of 2022, and tried to bring Mongolia, which had been enthusiastic about the economic cooperation with Russia and China, under the umbrella of the United States and turn it into an enemy of Russia and China. Discussions also progressed on placing Mongolia in the “Indo-Pacific” China containment network. In the summer of 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene (Harvard graduate) visited the United States and declared that he would like to be friendly with the United States rather than Russia and China, and a plan was also floated for American companies to develop rare earths and other resources in Mongolia and export them to the United States (although they can only be exported via China).
The United States has begun a movement to turn Mongolia, which borders Russia, into a country that is hostile to Russia, like Ukraine. Russia has also started to warn about this since last year. Mongolia withdrew from the construction of a pipeline with Russia and China in May of this year, and it seems that the shift to hostility toward Russia and China was confirmed.
US using Ukraine playbook in Chinese-Russian neighbor – MP — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
However, some careful observation could tell that the current situation seems to be different. If Mongolia has become a country that is hostile to Russia and China, it would be better not to welcome Putin’s visit and to suggest that “if Putin comes, we will arrest him and hand him over to the ICC” (like South Africa did last year). However, the Mongolian government announced Putin’s visit and welcomed Putin, ignoring pressure from the ICC and Europe to “arrest him.”
That was the first time Putin has visited an ICC member-state since the issurance of an ICC arrest warrant for him in March 2023. That is why the Mongolian government’s response has been attracting worldwide attention (if the Mongolian authorities make a surprise arrest, the Russian military will launch a surprise invasion, and the suspect cannot be sent abroad unless he passes over the airspace of either China or Russia).
The ICC’s arrest warrant for Putin is nothing but an incredibly childish false accusation. The ICC labeled the Russian government’s educational project in which those ethnic Russian children from Donbass, which was a part of Ukraine (and separated and became a part of Russia), were invited to a Russian school for a one to two-week camp as a “humanitarian crime of abducting Ukrainians to Russia,” and indicted Putin on charges of crimes against humanity.
ICC’s Putin arrest warrant based on State Dept-funded report that debunked itself – The Grayzone
The ICC’s indictment for Putin does not indicate any specific “crimes.” No one can understand the structure of the false accusation without reading the Yale University report (i.e. a research report funded by the US State Department) on which the ICC relied heavily when filing the case, and the Grayzone article that exposed the lies of the report’s creator.
YaleHRL_Systematic.Reeducation.Transfer
At first, I was going to write about the stupidity of the ICC arrest warrant for Putin and Putin’s hypocritical strategy of winning by tacitly acknowledging the idiot without refuting him and turning it into an international political drama. However, as I was researching, I realized that the geopolitical transformation in Mongolia that Putin is instigating is more significant, so I put off analyzing the ICC arrest warrant (I will write about it again).
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin | International Criminal Court (icc-cpi.int)
プーチンの偽悪戦略に乗せられた人類 (tanakanews.com
The whole world is being wrongly manipulated by the ICC’s crude and childish false accusation. In this deceptive structure, the Mongolian government did not side with the ICC or the Western world (i.e. the US-Western Europe-centered international community), but instead sided with Putin, who is viewed as an evil by the Western world. That is a major shift for Mongolia, which had been lured by the US to become hostile towards Russia and China. Why did they change?
West brands all inconvenient facts as ‘Kremlin propaganda’ – Putin — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
The structure in which the US incites Europe to view Russia as an enemy and sanction it thoroughly, such as the Ukraine War, could continue for a long time to come (for example, a war between the Baltic states and Russia/Belarus might break out before the US presidential election so that Trump cannot stop it). The longer the conflict structure continues, the more Europe (Britain and the continental Western Europe) will decline, and the US will change from being hostile towards Russia and China to being isolated (i.e. the independence of the US, which has been dominated by the British). The US hegemony could collapse, and the world could become a non-American multipolar type world. Russia and China could gain the upper hand. From last year to this year, this shift has become clear. Mongolia, which was initially tempted by the US to be hostile towards Russia and China, has probably noticed the changes in the world and decided to become friendly with Putin again at some point in the recent past.
Should the US abandon Europe? — RT World News
BRICS will be the center of the coming non-US multipolar world. This year’s BRICS summit will be held in October in Kazan, Russia, which has the rotating chair. Putin invited Mongolian President Khurelsukh to the BRICS summit. In return for getting along with Russia, he is offering him the opportunity to become the center of the world in the future. Recently, even Turkey, a NATO member state, has given up on EU membership and applied to join BRICS (as has the Palestinian Authority!).
Turkiye requests BRICS membership: Report (thecradle.co)
Putin invites Mongolian president to BRICS summit — RT World News
Last year’s BRICS summit was held in South Africa, but South Africa declined to have Putin attend due to concerns about the ICC. After that, South Africa was instigated by the ICC to sue Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for humanitarian crimes in the Gaza War. A close observation tells that Netanyahu is destroying the ICC’s hegemony-maintaining British human rights diplomacy strategy from the opposite direction to Putin. Netanyahu is destroying the ICC and the British hegemony by creating a situation in which he can continue to commit real humanitarian crimes in Gaza without being prevented or sanctioned by the international community. Putin is not crushed by the sanctions from the Western world (i.e. the US side) for humanitarian crimes he did not commit, but rather strengthens and rises to power, destroying the British ICC. Trump and other isolationist forces that are taking over the US are also hegemony-destroyers and are helping Netanyahu.
ガザの次は西岸潰し (tanakanews.com) or TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » After Gaza, the West Bank Will Be Destroyed
Around Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, which had once the anti-Russian stance, are turning to have the pro-Russian stance. As such, Mongolia’s turn is not surprising. Pashinyan’s Armenia has mysteriously and foolishly pursued an anti-Russian stance, but it may be interesting to see what it might do from now on. The EU is particularly angry about Mongolia’s welcome of Putin. There is a reason for that. The pipeline that goes to China via Mongolia carries natural gas from Russia’s Yamal Peninsula, but that gas has been sent to Europe until now. The EU is angry because China could take the European gas (although it can send it to both).
Armenia ready for strategic partnership with US — PM – World – TASS
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Putin has been trying to turn Russia from a country facing Europe to a country facing Eurasia. That’s why he is actively trying to incorporate with Mongolia, which is in the middle of Eurasia. The pipeline from the Yamal Peninsula to China could be built through Kazakhstan, not through Mongolia. The Kazakh government is keen to go through their country. But Putin is adamant about going through Mongolia. In the “Power of Siberia 2” plan, Russia’s Gazprom will be in charge of laying and managing the pipeline in Mongolia. If a Chinese company (CNPC) had been in charge instead of Russia, the United States might not have been hostile or obstructed.
Power of Siberia 2 to close deal – or re-route? – Asia Times
However, Russia and China probably deliberately did not do so. If the Chinese, who are not sanctioned by the United States, were in charge of Mongolia, they could avoid conflict with the United States, but on the other hand, they would not be able to drive the US out of Eurasia, including Mongolia. Since the breakout of the war in Ukraine, not only Russia but also China has come to think that it was necessary to drive the US (i.e. the US, the UK, and the Western Europe) out of Eurasia. Gazprom’s involvement in laying the Mongolian pipeline could induce sanctions and obstruction from the US, and in the process of overcoming them, Russia and China will be able to eliminate the US influence from Mongolia. That may be a deliberate Russian-Chinese joint- plan to create a de-Americanized Eurasia.
Regarding the “Power of Siberia 2” project, there are various rumors, such as the negotiations on gas prices between Russia and China have stalled (the price proposed by China is too low) and the project has failed because China could buy gas from Turkmenistan instead of Russia. That may be true, but on the other hand, the stalling is not a bad thing. The more time passes, the more the fraudulent theory of the anthropogenic global warming could be exposed, and the international communtiy might say that it is oil and gas after all. Even if China imports gas from both Russia and Turkmenistan, it could only cover a portion of its domestic consumption.
Putin arrives in Mongolia, key link in planned gas pipeline to China | Reuters
After his visit to Mongolia, Putin will attend the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. He attends this meeting every year. The BRICS summit in October will be held in Kazan, a city on the Trans-Siberian Railway. These are also measures to shift the center of Russia from the European part such as Moscow and St. Petersburg to the Eurasian direction. Russia has also been active in propping up North Korea in recent years. Thanks to Russia, North Korea has obtained security that will prevent the collapse of the nation. All that remains is to wait for Trump to return to power, reunite with Kim Jong-un, ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and decide to withdraw the US troops from South Korea (lol, or maybe it’s true).
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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com
Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life. His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.
Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate
Original in Japanese: モンゴルの地政学転換 (tanakanews.com)
Tags: Bullying, China, East Asia, Geopolitics, Hegemony, Imperialism, Mongolia, Russia, USA
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 16 Sep 2024.
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