The Momentum for the Ceasefire in Ukraine Grows

EUROPE, 30 Sep 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

24 Sep 2024 – Yesterday, French President Macron stated that Europe should improve the relations with Russia after the end of the Ukraine War. He has always been an opportunist when it comes to the relations with Russia. In June 2022, for example, a few months after the beginning of the Ukraine War, he stated that it would be better not to corner Russia.  At that time, he was a sympathetic supporter for Russia, perhaps because he thought that Ukraine would likely win. Earlier this year, however, he said that the NATO troops needed to be sent to Ukraine to avoid Ukraine’s defeat against Russia, but that was rejected by many NATO countries that did not want to change their stance on the proxy war. (Macron calls for new international order in response to war in Ukraine）

Nowadays, however, Macron has spoken of the ceasefire and the reconciliation with Russia, because of the growing anti-war sentiment in France and Europe, and no hope of Ukraine’s victory in the War, in addition to his own declining popularity and the growing discord within the coalition government. Macron’s remarks as such were made at one of the recent Christian church meetings. (Macron calls for new world order）（Macron Calls for New European Order）

Recently, the public opinion on the ceasefire in Ukraine and the reconciliation with Russia has been growing stronger throughout Europe. At the same time, the right-wing parties that are pro-Russia, such as France’s Le Pen and Germany’s AfD, have been gaining the ground in each election. Ukraine, having been supported by the West, is on the verge of collapse in the battlefield. Macron dissolved the Parliament ahead of the schedule and called for the General Election in July, hoping to win while he would be in French politics. Unexpectedly for him, however, his centrist party was defeated in the first round of voting, and the right wing led by Le Pen took the lead. (The left wing came in the second.)（欧州エリート支配の崩壊）

As he had no other choice, Macron teamed up with the left-wing, with whom he had been on the poor terms until now. He, then, rearranged and integrated the candidates with the aim of the left and center wing cooperating in the election to defeat the right wing. As the result, the right-wing was defeated on the technical level of the election, in which the left wing came in the first and the center-wing came in the second. Therefore, the left wing and the center-wing formed the coalition to eliminate the right-wing. His parliamentary management has begun. However, the poor relationship between Macron and the left wing was soon exposed. The left-wing repeatedly rejected the centrist prime ministerial candidate nominated by Macron. From August to September the left wing made the resolution to impeach Macron, in addition to their demonstrations against him.（French Left Calls For Mass Protest Against Macron After He Blocks Its Choice For French PM）

After somehow overcoming the opposition of the left, the centrist Prime Minister Barnier took office on September 5th and formed the cabinet on September 21^st. However, the cabinet was mostly made up of the center-right ministers favored by Macron, and therefore, the left has remained dissatisfied. Macron’s coalition government with the left could be short-lived. Macron’s term of office is until 2027, but there are some predictions that he will be forced to resign around next spring, far before 2027.

In the Western European countries such as France and Germany, the self-destruction of the economy and of the society is being accelerated due to a series of the super-foolish policies by the political elites. These policies relate to the Western Allies’ defeat in the Ukraine War, the soaring fuel prices due to the unfounded global warming countermeasures, and the increased burden of the actively accepting immigrants (who are actually the so-called refugees for the economic reasons). The ongoing recession is getting worse. It is inevitable that the elite parties are losing the election. Meanwhile, the right-wing (i.e. the far right), which has continued to oppose to those various super-foolish policies, is gaining the upper hand and is soon to become the ruling party.（Olaf Scholz has a sudden moment of clarity about Russia）

The media in Europe, America and Japan are touting that the European citizens are now supporting the outrageous Nazi far-right, but the media themselves are big liars and propagandists of the super-dumb policies. The elites, including their media, have continued to expand their super-dumb policies, so it is the logical consequence that they lost the election (and their media should also collapse soon). The elites are bound by the subordination to the United States and the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset. They cannot stop their super-dumb policies. The right wing, however, is outside the bounds of these restrictions. They are able to understand the public will and put forward the policies that oppose to the dumb policies of the elites.  Thereby, they are gaining the political dominance. The democracy in the entity of the right wing is functioning. Europe in that entity is decent, and does not commit a large-scale election fraud like that in the United States. (There were some minor frauds in the German local elections, but they were probably the limit). If it were possible for the political elites in Europe to commit any fraud without being found out like those in the United States, they would have done it sooner, and Macron would not have been in such a difficult position.（West rethinking stance on Ukraine）

To maintain their power, those Western European elites, such as Macron and German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz, have no choice but to listen to the public opinion and adopt the same policies as the right wing could have implemented. Macron’s recent proposal for the reconciliation with Russia was made in such political environment. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also stated in the television interview on August 8 that he would like to see an early ceasefire in the Ukraine War. To date, however, Germany has sent the most weapons to Ukraine in Europe (at the request of the United States).（German chancellor wants to end Ukraine conflict ‘faster’）

(By opposing to the major public opinions, Germany and France had implemented their policy of the acceptance of large numbers of the immigrants and the economic refugees from the Middle East and Africa over the years. Now, however, they have reversed that policy. These two countries have begun to block the inflow of the immigrants and have begun to deport them. They have also abolished the free movement without the inspection within the Schengen Agreement areas in the EU. As such, Germany and other EU countries have resumed the border checks.)（リベラル全体主義・リベ全の強まり See its translation. →  (TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » Strengthening Liberal Totalitarianism)

The ruling classes of France and Germany have finally admitted their defeat in the Ukraine War, because they have come to be in the obvious disadvantageous position. Therefore, they have begun to hope for the ceasefire and the reconciliation with Russia. However, one could tell, from the broaden perspective or bird’s-eye view, that the ceasefire in Ukraine and the reconciliation with Russia will be unlikely to occur, at least for the foreseeable future. That is because Germany and France are dependent on the United States in terms of their security. In addition, some part of the United States (i.e. the Intelligence Community, which is the Deep State or the DS), which controls Germany and France, has no intention to promote the ceasefire or the reconciliation with Russia. The US has maintained its stance of the continuation of the War with Russia either in Ukraine or in any other region of the world.

The EU’s Defense Minister (i.e. former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius), who is more dependent on the US than the French and German leaders, recently predicted that the War between NATO and Russia (i.e. the Ukraine War) will continue for another 6-8 years. Russia intends to prolong the War, and therefore, the EU has no choice but to prepare for a long war with Russia.（EU’s Defense Chief Says Europe Must Be Ready To Fight Russia in 6-8 Years）

The governments of France and Germany are elected by the people, so they have no choice but to reflect the will of the people. The EU also has a parliament (i.e. the European Parliament), where the right-wing’s call for the ceasefire and the reconciliation with Russia is growing stronger. Unfortunately, the EU politics is the coalition system of the diverse factions, in which the elite centrists and the leftists continue to team up to exclude the anti-elite right-wingers. Therefore, the affairs on the personnel issues of the EU’s top echelons do not necessarily reflect the will of the European people. In addition, the EU’s upper echelons continue to receive the strong interference from the US & UK Hegemony (i.e. the Intelligence Community). The EU is controlled from the above by those forces which are belligerent towards Russia and which follow the orders from the US. The three Baltic states, which border Russia, are currently the most belligerent towards Russia in Europe. As such, if Ukraine is unable to continue the War against Russia due to the exhaustion of its military forces, the next war with Russia or Belarus will likely break out in these three Baltic states or in Poland. Even though the upper echelons of Poland are currently in the internal conflict between the pro-Russian and the anti-Russian factions, these three Baltic states are controlled by those who are staunchly hostile towards Russia.

The EU’s top Prime Minister (i.e. the European Commission President) is still in her position, former German Defense Minister von der Leyen, a puppet of the US Intelligence Community who loves liberal totalitarianism. She is the poster child for the World Economic Forum (i.e. the Davos Conference). At the Davos Conference in January this year, she proposed “liberal totalitarianism”, which would begin a large-scale crackdown on the right-wing oppression for speech. (In fact, liberal totalitarianism or the ban on disinformation was the main theme at the Davos Conference this year.) In her recent EU cabinet, von der Leyen appointed the former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as the EU Foreign Minister, and Lithuanian Kubilius as the EU Defense Minister. Both of them are Russian-hostile politicians representing the three Baltic states.（EU President Demands Globalist Control Over All Information）

The EU upper echelons continue to completely ignore the will of the European people. As the staunch puppets of the US, they are prepared to continue their hostility towards Russia and their military support for Ukraine. NATO is even much more dependent on the US than the EU. In such situation, even if France, Germany and many other European countries, by reflecting the will of the people, begin to call for the ceasefire in Ukraine and the reconciliation with Russia, the EU itself and NATO, which have nothing to do with the will of the people, will continue to ignore the will of their member countries.  Both the EU and NATO will continue to consider Russia as their enemy and to carry on the War. Even if Ukraine becomes too weak militarily and impossible to continue the War, the EU and NATO may try to expand and move the battlefield to Poland or to those three Baltic states in their attempt to make Russia their permanent enemy. If the US Intelligence Community takes any action behind the scene, they can start a war out of nowhere.

The Intelligence Community controls not only the US Hegemony but also both the US and the UK. In a recent speech, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy predicted that the Ukrainian War will intensify and deepen further, and will likely continue at least until 2026. The US Intelligence Community, the UK, NATO, and the EU, in persistently viewing Russia as their enemy, are still willing to continue the Ukraine War.（Ukraine conflict could continue beyond 2026 – UK FM）

The European people, expressed in their public opinions, and the governments of many European countries, including France and Germany, aspire to the ceasefire in Ukraine and to the reconciliation with Russia. However, the US Intelligence Community that controls Europe is eager to continue the Ukraine War and to consider Russia as their enemy. As the ceasefire supporters and the belligerents intertwine, it is now becoming increasingly difficult for the US Intelligence Community to continue the War on the ground in Ukraine. In addition, the Russian military has intensified its air strikes to destroy the infrastructure in Ukraine since this year.  As such, some 70% of Ukraine’s power grid has already been destroyed. Many areas of Ukraine will be without heating in this coming winter. The Ukrainian citizens will surely be forced to live in much harder conditions than those in last winter.（Coming winter ‘sternest test yet’ for Ukraine – IEA）

The West provided Ukraine with the financial aid for 50% ($19.1 billion) of the Ukrainian government finances last year, but they have provided the same country with only 27% ($10.6 billion) this year so far. The West is gradually losing both its capacity and willingness to support Ukraine this year.（West has halved financial aid to Ukraine – media）

Zelensky, Ukrainian President, wants to negotiate with Russia to achieve the ceasefire settlement while Ukraine still remains as a state. That was why he asked Hungarian Prime Minister Orban to act as the arbitrator in July this year.         （対露和解を望み始めたゼレンスキー）

However, the United States, which has turned the Ukrainian government into a puppet, does not allow Ukraine to have any settlement with Russia. Therefore, contrary to his true intentions, Zelensky has no choice but to continue the War as he was ordered by the United States. Zelensky visited the United States on September 22 and proposed to the U.S. government a plan for the United States to continue providing the military support to Ukraine. The plan includes a talk of a NATO-style legally binding agreement [i.e. a treaty] between the United States and Ukraine, so that even if Trump, who wants to end the military aide to Ukraine, becomes the US President, he will be forced to continue aiding Ukraine.（Zelensky aiming to ‘Trump-proof’ aid）

It was initially reported that these schemes to involve the United States were proposed by Zelensky and the Ukrainian government. However, that was probably untrue. The fact seems that the U.S. Intelligence Community proposed them for their own benefit and had their puppet Zelensky carry them out. Zelensky’s true intention was to rely on Trump to bring about a ceasefire to Ukraine, but unfortunately Zelensky was being forced to do the opposite. By manipulating Zelensky to get the US government to provide Ukraine with more military assistance, the US Intelligence Community is creating a structure in which the US military industry under the umbrella of the Intelligence Community enables to continuously operate at the full capacity to produce more weapons for Ukraine. This is how Zelensky is being forced to work for the U.S. Intelligence Community, not for Ukraine. The Ukraine War is being prolonged neither for Ukraine nor for Europe, but for the US Intelligence Community. （Zelenskyy Begins Busy US Week With Tour Of Pennsylvania Ammo Plant）

Even though the US Intelligence Community is hostile to Russia, there are some hidden multipolarists in the Community, who are secretly strengthening Russia by prolonging the Ukraine War. They are attempting to promote the rise of the non-US side, including Russia and China, to cause the self-destruction of the West, and eventually to make the world multipolarized. From the beginning of the Ukraine War, Russian President Putin was aware that the longer the War continued, the more Russia and the non-US side would gain the upper hand and the US side would be self-destructed. The US media, led by the machinations of the hidden multipolar faction of the Intelligence Community, continued to intentionally distort the reports that the Russian army was suffering a series of the major defeats. Interestingly however, Russia not only did not deny these distorted reports but also tacitly accepted them. By prolonging the War, the Russian army has continued to win little by little, and they have become very much superior in the War.

There are twenty bridges across the Dnieper River that runs through the center of Ukraine.  The Russian military forces have not attacked these bridges almost at all. The Russians have allowed the Ukrainian military to cross the bridges to attack the Russian military for the past two and a half years. If the Russian military forces attacked and destroyed the bridges, they could cut off the supply routes of the Ukrainian forces. That is one of the strategic basics in the battle of the war. Nevertheless, the Russian army has kept the bridges intact. A famous American blogger living in Russia writes that this is strange.（Why Won’t Russia Destroy Ukraine’s Bridges Across The Dnieper?）

However, I do not think that is strange. That is because Russia’s national interest has been to be maximized by the continuation of the Ukraine War, with the Russian military superiority. Therefore, the Russian forces have intentionally left the supply route bridges for the Ukrainian military forces, which are far much weaker than the Russian army. The Russian army is taking the measures to limit their military superiority to a small extent in order to prolong the War. In other words, the Russian forces have intentionally been in “the falling behind the rook and the bishop.”

In August, the Ukrainian military forces invaded Kursk, slightly beyond the border with Russia. More than a month has passed since then. The Russian military forces, which are supposed to be far much stronger than the Ukraine forces, have still not expelled the Ukrainian troops from its territory. I speculate that the Russian army is deliberately “pretending to be weak” in that situation. As long as the Ukrainian forces occupy Kursk, even if various powers around the world ask Russia to “make peace with Ukraine,” Russia could stubbornly refuse, by stating, “As long as Kursk is occupied, we cannot make peace with Ukraine.” The invasion of Kursk was planned by the US Intelligence Community, and Zelensky was in no position to refuse that. Since the beginning of the War, the Intelligence Community has planted the obsession into the US and Europe that “Ukraine must win.” The US and Europe do not allow the Ukrainian forces to voluntarily withdraw from Kursk. Unless the overall situation changes, the Russian forces will not expel the Ukrainian forces from Kursk. Therefore, Russia and Ukraine cannot enter into a ceasefire negotiation.（ウクライナ戦争で米・非米分裂を長引かせる）

The invasion of Kursk has no benefits for Ukraine and is a waste of their military power. The US and UK intelligence chiefs attended a media-sponsored meeting recently. Both of them praised the Kursk invasion by the Ukrainian army. They praised that it was a great strategy to boost the morale of the Ukrainian army. That is hilarious. That implies that the US and UK intelligence agencies have been controlled by the hidden multipolar faction.（CIA, MI6 Chiefs Praise Ukraine’s Kursk Invasion For Bringing War To ‘Ordinary Russians’ ）

The Ukraine War has been prolonged by the collaboration of the hidden multipolar faction in the US Intelligence Community and Putin’s strategy to raise Russia, China, and the non-US side. By doing that, they intend to cause the self-destruction of the US Hegemony. The ceasefire in Ukraine is difficult to achieve now. France’s Macron’s attempt for the reconciliation with Russia is also difficult to achieve. It seems that he will be forced to resign before it can be achieved. However, there is a scenario that can turn this impasse around in one shot. That is Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election in November. If Trump wins and is reinstated as the US President, he will work with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who has already been working for the ceasefire in Ukraine, and will move towards the realization of the ceasefire. If Trump returns to the Presidency in January next year, he will be able to overwrite the Intelligence Community’s actions and to induce the Ukrainian military forces to voluntarily withdraw from Kursk. Then, Macron in his attempt to extend his political life will be able to get close to Trump and to cooperate with him to bring about a Ukrainian ceasefire. Meanwhile, Germany’s Scholz will also quietly get close to Trump.

Until recently, the only people in Europe who supported the ceasefire in Ukraine and the reconciliation with Russia were those right-wingers such as Orban and Germany’s AfD, who were called the”far-right” by the major media. The establishment and the mainstream political powers, such as the leaders of Germany, France, and the EU, were all hostile to Russia and fully supported Ukraine. The establishment in Europe were the allies of the US Democratic Party and the enemies of Trump. Even NATO considered “some crisis response measures” in case of Trump’s return to the power. In addition, the EU was promoting to impose the sanctions on Orban. But now, the French and German leaders, for the prolongation of their political careers, have switched to the support of the ceasefire in Ukraine and the peace with Russia. Orban is pleased that the number of the supporters of Ukraine peace is rapidly increasing in the political circles of the EU countries.（More EU leaders joining ‘peace camp’ – Orban）

In that context, if Trump becomes the US President, the supporters of the Ukraine ceasefire will suddenly become the main stream power, stronger throughout Europe and the United States. Then, the United States, France and Germany will switch to be in the peace camp.  As the result, only the upper echelons of the EU, the UK, and some of the small Eastern European countries such as the Baltic States will remain to consider Russia as their enemy. When Trump became the US President, during his first term he intended to destroy the US Intelligence Community, which had been the “enemy of democracy” that had secretly controlled the United States and the rest of the world over the decades. His second term will also become a showdown with the Intelligence Community. The US and Europe will have an odd conflicting structure. That is, the US Intelligence Community with its puppets von der Leyen’s EU group and the UK, which continue to view Russia as their enemy on one hand, and Trump and his European allies (Orban, France and Germany) who want to bring about a ceasefire to Ukraine on the other. Their conflict will undergo a major shift from the predominance of the hostility towards Russia to the predominance of the reconciliation with Russia. In fact, the desire for Trump’s US Presidency is currently growing in Europe.

That shift is a nuisance for Putin, however. Nevertheless, he cannot ignore those people who want to be friendly with him. He has repeatedly stated that it would be better if Biden or Harris won the US Presidential Election because it would be easier for him to predict the move of the US. (He would not like Trump’s Presidency because it would be difficult for him to predict.) However, as the desire for Trump’s Presidency began to grow in Europe these days, Foreign Minister Lavrov, Putin’s confidant, announced, “Putin’s statement in support of Harris was a joke.”  No matter whether Harris or Trump wins, the the situation of the US will remain unchanged because the US is controlled by the Deep State (or “DS” = the Intelligence Community). Therefore, it doesn’t matter who wins, Lavrov explained.（Putin’s Kamala endorsement was a joke – Lavrov)

That, as discussed above, may be understandable. However, if Trump wins, it seems like that he would destroy the DS rule. Is that a good thing for Russia? Lavrov has said nothing about it. I believe that the reason Putin had Lavrov say that the Harris support argument was a joke is because the anticipation of Trump is growing in Europe, so Putin decided to dilute and retract the Harris support statement that is in conflict with that growing trend.

It is neither Europeans nor Russians who decide the outcome of the US Presidential Election, but the American citizens. However, that is also a pretense. In fact, the US Democratic Party, with the cooperation of the Intelligence Community, has committed the large-scale election frauds using the mail-in ballot system and the vote counting in the 2020 and 2022 Midterm Elections.  They have succeeded in committing the perfect crime. In the US Intelligence Community, the unilateral hegemonists and the multipolar factions have been fighting behind the scenes to fool each other for a long time. Until now, the Democratic Party’s election frauds have been successful, but their success in the election fraud could be unsure this year. Their fraud may end up being insufficient, or the Trump camp may overcome the fraud and win.

In one of my recent articles, I wrote, “The US Presidential Election has entered the perfect crime distortion of liberal totalitarianism. The liberal totalitarians’ lies have never been exposed. The election fraud by the Harris camp to defeat Trump will also be unexposed; so Trump cannot win.” （無能なハリスを有能と歪曲する）

However, I now think that the multipolar faction of the US Intelligence Community may be preparing another scenario in which Trump and his supporters will work hard, overcome the election fraud by the Harris camp, win the Election, and achieve Trump’s comeback. Then, Trump and his supporters will destroy the impregnable and evil liberal totalitarianism, and will restore the American democracy and freedom of speech. By preparing such a revolutionary scenario and having people realize it, a strong political system could be created. (That was why the former Intelligence Community, which was the Jewish capitalists, made the French people carry out the French Revolution and created the model for a strong country that has been considered as the modern nation since then.)  If they do not go through the scenario that makes the people work hard and win, the new system that they have worked so hard to create may once again be taken over by the military-industrial hegemony faction. That has led the multipolar faction to the creation of some ridiculous and evil things such as liberal totalitarianism, the Great Reset, and the Covid 19 vaccine. The same faction, then, has tried to get the people to overcome them. Needless to say, there are some “underachievers” in the world who, like some island nation people in the far-east of Asia, do not overcome these difficulties and instead submit and adapt.  Leave them alone. (Lucky!)

If Trump wins the Presidential Election, the great transformation on the US side will be accelerated. It seems to me that the multipolar faction in the Intelligence Community will be amused and wants to let him win. If so, Putin could be in trouble, but Xi Jinping might think that Trump is better because his presidency could end the wars in the various regions of the world. Since the Covid 19 pandemic crisis, it seems that the DS (i.e. the Deep State = the US Intelligence Community = the US Hegemony Management Body) is transforming and sublimating into the DH (i.e. the Deep Hegemony), which is a joint hegemony between the US Intelligence Community and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Besides, it is not the US but CCP that holds WHO and IPCC. It may also be said that Trump could return to the power if Xi Jinping wants him to do so. The story of the DH is still under consideration. I would like to write about it someday.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: ウクライナ停戦機運の強まり (tanakanews.com)

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This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 30 Sep 2024.

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