The Failure of Iran (Part 2)

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 7 Oct 2024

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

This article is the continuation of “The Loss of Hezbollah and Iran”.

4 Oct. 2024 – In my article the day before yesterday [i.e. the article, entitled, “The Loss of Hezbollah and Iran”, originally published on 2 October 2024], I wrote that Iran had no intention of starting a full-scale war with Israel, so that the war in the Middle East would not expand. However, since then, I have changed my view. I do not think that my analysis of Iran’s stance is wrong. When Iran and Israel repeatedly launched the retaliatory attacks in last April, both sides reduced their hostility and it did not become a major war. So, if the same performance is repeated this time, it might not become a major war. However, this time, Israel will probably not repeat that performance of last April. It is obvious that Iran has no intention of starting a full-scale war, but Israel does. The more Iran softens, the more Israel hardens. Therefore, the war in the Middle East could expand. （Biden Is Pushing Israel Towards Larger War）

Israel will probably launch a larger attack on Iran in the next few days than the attack from Iran on Israel on 1 October, 2024.  This time, Iran attacked Israel, expecting the repeat of the same shrinking performance as in last April.  However, Israel instead intensified its attacks, bringing the situation closer to a full-scale war. The issue after that is how Iran will respond to Israel’s intensifying attacks to expand the war from now on. It was allegedly said that the shrinking performance in last April was Israel’s trick to corner Iran by suddenly changing the previous performance into an escalating performance this time. In other words, that performance in last April was a ploy that Israel would likely pull. （Rabobank: Iran Just Made A Huge Strategic Error）

The Biden administration has stated that even though Israel’s retaliation against Iran may be justified, the retaliation should be the same intensity proportionately as Iran’s attack. The idea behind this statement assumes that both warring parties should perform a mutual shrinking act this time again as they did in last April, so that the conflict between them this time will also not escalate.（Biden says Israel has a ‘right to respond’ to Iran, but ‘in proportion’）

Israel has ostensibly agreed to the proportional attack. Then, Israel leaked to the media that Israel might attack some Iranian oil production facilities as a proportionate retaliation, which could be considered as Israel’s retaliation to Iran’s air attack on the Israeli offshore gas production facilities in Ashkelon on 1 October 2024. （Israel Planning Major Attack on Iran）（Israel plans massive Iran payback with Middle East on edge）

Iran is playing the proportional attack game of reducing the retaliation chain, targeting the Israeli gas production facilities (as well as Israeli military bases and Mossad headquarters). It seemed that Iran had deliberately shifted the targets slightly so as not to exactly hit the most important targets. In fact, regardless of Iran’s attack on the Ashkelon gas facilities, the site was mostly intact. Therefore, they resumed the gas production from the next day of the attack.（Chevron Restarts Gas Production in Israel After Brief Halt During Iran’s Attack）

However, even if Iran did not hit the exact target, the fact remains that Iran attacked Israel’s energy production facilities. Therefore, Israel can also attack Iran’s oil facilities proportionately. Actually, Israel can block Iran’s oil production and exports and cause the world’s crude oil prices soaring. The message contained in Israel’s leak to the media this time is a threat to the world leaders, telling them, “We, Israel, can do that, but what would you, the US and European leaders, do to this situation? Would you be in favor of us more?” （Iran’s High-Value Oil Assets In IDF Crosshairs As Israel Vows “Painful” Response）

The US is one month away from the Presidential Election. If the oil prices rise and the ongoing inflation in the US worsens, it will surely be disadvantageous for Biden and Harris’ Democratic Party.  A widespread dockworker strike has already begun on the US East Coast this week. The workers’ strike is likely to continue indefinitely. Therefore, the exacerbation of the current inflation is inevitable. The Democratic Party wants to avoid the oil price-rising due to a major Middle East war. The US government, then, gathered the G7 member-countries and decided to strengthen the sanctions against Iran. As such, the US administration is now completely at Israel’s mercy. When Biden was asked about Israel’s strikes during one of the recent press conferences, he mistakenly thought that he was being asked about the dockworkers’ strikes. What a joke! In any case, the US administration can stop neither of the strikes.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a leading anti-Trump establishment figure, has been a complete idiot, saying, “Instead of leaving it to Israel, the US military should bomb Iran’s oil facilities and impose military sanctions that will destroy them.” Graham has long been a fierce Israeli puppet, and this puppet nature has supported his high position.（Sen. Graham Calls for US To Strike Iranian Oil Sites in Response to Attack on Israel）

Israel has hardly allowed the media to cover the damage caused by the Iranian attack on 1 October in this year, and is adopting the strategy of hiding the damage. Since we do not know how much or how seriously Israel’s facilities were destroyed, the world is unable to know to what extent Israel’s retaliation against Iran is within the range of the proportional attack.  As such, Israel is now free to do as it pleases. The US government, which wants to prevent a major Middle East war, is increasingly pandering to Israel, providing it with weapons, funds, and relevant intelligence at its behest. （Israel Censors Reporting On Military Sites Hit By Iran, Obscuring Extent Of Damage）

On 1 October [on 1 October, in New York] 2024, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a ceasefire between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. At that time, Israel criticized Guterres for not criticizing Iran, and imposed its sanctions on him, banning him from entering Israel. In his ceasefire proposal, Guterres did not criticize only Israel, but no one. Nevertheless, Israel harshly criticized Guterres and sanctioned him.（Israel declares UN chief ‘persona non grata’）

The next day, Guterres made a comment condemning Iran’s attack on Israel, as if to explain. Although many UN member-states are criticizing Israel, the Secretary-General is being pulled by the US and Europe, which are Israel’s puppets, and has no choice but to do as Israel tells them.  Israel hates and ridicules the UN and the international public opinion.  Israel has no intention of accepting the UN arbitration. That is why this Jewish state can “punish” the UN chief.  As long as the hegemony over the world by the US and Europe continues, Israel is able to continue to turn the US and Europe into its puppets. Even if the world shifts to a multipolar world, Israel will be able to continue to survive by manipulating China and Russia. （UN chief condemns Iran after Israeli outrage）（France’s Policy ‘Completely Aligned With the US’）

The US and Europe cannot escape from being puppets of Israel. However, Iran mistakenly believed that if it approached the US and Europe and improved the relations with them, the US and Europe would pressure Israel to make peace, and Israel would become quiet. Masoud Pezeshkian, who became the President of Iran at the end of last July, took a liberal-like stance to reconcile with the US and Europe, and sought to get the US and Europe to pressure Israel not to take any belligerent measure, and also to realize a ceasefire in Palestine, Lebanon, and other places to ease the conflict with Israel. （US ‘helpless’ as Middle East burns – Moscow）

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps opposed this settlement plan, telling that Iran should not rely on the US, Europe and Israel. However, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei supported the settlement plan, stating that he would give it a try (because the US and Europe, whose hegemony is declining, might get on board).  Immediately after that, Hamas’ Haniya, who was in Tehran to attend the Presidential Inauguration, was assassinated by Israel. Regardless of that, Iran refrained from retaliating against Israel and postponed it.（Iran Attacked Israel Only After U.S. Rejected Its Moderate Stance）

Pezeshkian tried to improve the relations with the US and Europe, but the US and Europe were not on board at all. In the US, both the Democrats and Trump want to win the Presidential Election, so this year in particular they work as the Israeli puppets ever more. Macron and other Europeans have suffered terribly by acting as the US puppets in the Ukraine War, but they have been unable to change the direction at all. They just continue to be the US puppets. Meanwhile, Iran’s proposal, entrusted to Nasrallah, for the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was ignored. Its background was as follows: Since last August, Israel has been inclined to invade Lebanon and to attack Hezbollah, but Iran has been taking a moderate approach and has been reluctant to provide any additional support to Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s Nasrallah, led by Iran, made a propose for a ceasefire with Israel, to the United States and France. However, both of Israel’s puppets rejected his ceasefire proposal. （Hezbollah leader agreed to ceasefire before being killed, Lebanon’s foreign minister says）

Israel has taken advantage of Iran’s reluctance in waging war on Israel. Therefore, after carrying out the simultaneous pager bombing, which was a sign of its deep intelligence penetration into Lebanon, Israel conducted the pinpoint attack to kill Nasrallah and other leaders and destroyed their weapons depots.  By doing that, Israel has significantly reduced Hezbollah’s combat capabilities. This war has expanded Israel’s share of the damage as Iran retreated. It was foolish of Iran to make the concessions in the hope of the United States and Europe. It is wrong to expect the rationality from the United States in its global strategy, especially in its Middle East strategy. （Fyodor Lukyanov: The Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale war）

The United States, with its strong hidden multipolarists, has continued to view Iran, Russia, and China as its enemies. By viewing that, the US has united itself for decades. Israel has also taken advantage of the United States’ hostility towards Iran and waged an extreme war to weaken its enemies. This tendency will continue in the future. And it will eventually bring about the self-destruction to the US Hegemony. Iran should have ignored the United States and Europe.  This Islamic state should have dealt with China and Russia. Unfortunately, Iran still has some illusions about the American and European liberals and, thus, it has taken all those foolish measures. Even I, a humble commoner, can see such trend. Unfortunately, Khamenei, who went along with Pezeshkian’s peace plan, did not see that. This diplomatic blindness is not a mistake made by Pezeshkian, who is an amateur in diplomacy, but by Khamenei, who has been the Supreme Leader for a long time. He deserves to be called, “The Idiot [of Iran].” （After Iran’s missile salvo, will Israel bite or fold?）

Iran is now being seriously defeated because of its grave mistakes. Hezbollah, an important security asset for Iran in Lebanon, is also being eliminated. I am surprised by the fact that all those delusional articles have been circulated by the Islamist alt-media, claiming that Israel is losing the war even though actually it is Iran that is losing.（‘New Day’ for World as Myth of Israeli Invincibility Shattered – Analyst）

Will Israel bomb the Iranian oil facilities soon? Probably not this time. Then, what kind of the retaliation will Israel launch? The answer to this question depends on Iran’s possible retaliation against Israel in the possible near future. Then, the Iranian oil facilities could also become some of the main targets of Israel’s future retaliation against Iran. In addition, nowadays Iran states that if Israel attacks the Iranian oil facilities, Iran will also attack, as its retaliation, the oil facilities in those countries (such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE) that have let the Israeli missiles passing over their countries. （Iran Will Consider Any State Providing Airspace to Israel As Enemy）

Does Iran’s statement as such imply that Iran is hoping that Saudi Arabia and other relevant countries will put the political pressure on Israel through the United States? Even if so, unfortunately such expectation is of no use at all.  Both those Arabic countries and Israel might conduct their attacks against the enemy’s oil facilities each other. That may cause the crude oil price to soar. Or such sharp rise in the oil price may not happen. In fact, even with all those relevant threats, the price of crude oil has not risen very much. The oil price is now actually paralyzed, so it could only rise after any truly serious destruction of those oil facilities happens, if any. The world is full of paralysis, the reversal of good and evil, distortions, and all those super stupid policies.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Original in Japanese:  イランの失敗 (tanakanews.com)

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 7 Oct 2024.

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