The Loss of Hezbollah and Iran (Part 1)

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 7 Oct 2024

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

2 Oct 2024 – After Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders in an airstrike on 27 Sep and began the ground invasion of Lebanon, Iran–the chieftain of Hezbollah–retaliated by firing 180 missiles over Israel on 1 Oct. When Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Syria in April this year, Iran also retaliated with a drone attack, but this time the attack from Iran was much larger than that in last April. There is a lot of talk that Iran and Israel are finally in a full-scale war that will involve the entire Middle East, or that it could lead to a World War III. （イスラエルのレバノン攻撃し放題）

However, on the same day of the missile attack, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Iran would not send any additional troops to Lebanon to prop up Hezbollah. The gist of the statement was that Iran wanted the stability in the Middle East, not a war with Israel. Israel has already invaded southern Lebanon with its ground forces. If Iran sends its forces and a large amount of weapons to support Hezbollah, it will develop into a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry declared that it will not go that far.（Iran won’t deploy forces to Lebanon – foreign ministry）（Iran says will not send forces to confront Israel）

In brief, Iran, whose Hezbollah affiliate Nasrallah was killed, would lose its reputation if it did not retaliate, so it retaliated with 180 missiles on Israel. (It was also the retaliation for the deaths of the Iranian senior military officials who were sent along with Nasrallah.) However, Iran has no intention of continuing the war with Israel. So, Iran declared on the same day that it would not send any additional troops to Lebanon. The most important thing about Iran’s actions on that day was not the 180 missiles, but the declaration that it would not support Hezbollah any more. Therefore, there could be neither a major war nor a world war in the foreseeable future from the Middle East. （Five Lessons That Russia Can Learn From The Latest Israeli-Lebanese War）

Iran and Israel continued to attack each other’s mainland in April this year, but the attacks gradually weakened and ended after one and a half round trips. This time, however, it is unlikely that the attacks will gradually become stronger and lead to a full-scale war. That is because Israel prioritizes the destruction of Hezbollah’s military assets in Lebanon rather than attacking Iran. Hezbollah has always attacked Israel, but Iran only retaliates when Israel attacks first. Moreover, there are times when Iran did not retaliate. When Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh, the Representative of Hamas, who was staying in Iran in last July, Iran became furious and vowed to retaliate. However, it refrained and did not retaliate.  This difference seems to imply that Iran has even tacitly recognized Palestine as a quasi-state within Israel. （イランとイスラエルの冷たい和平）

Thus, even though Iran and Israel have been on a brink of a military conflict since last April, Israel this time has given a serious blow to Hezbollah, including the assassination of Nasrallah. Therefore, it may be considered that the consequence of their conflict was Israel’s victory and Iran’s defeat. That has made Iran declined to go to a full-scale war with Israel. （Nearly One Million Forcibly Displaced In Lebanon After Week Of War）

It has become obvious that Israel has a great military intelligence. With regard to Hezbollah, Israel knew the location of Nasrallah and other military leaders, and killed 10-18 people, more than a half of the main military leaders. Israel also knew the location of Hezbollah’s arsenal and destroyed a considerable amount of the weapons in the recent attack. Since October 1st this year, the Israel has been invading southern Lebanon with its ground forces. One of its goals is to destroy as many military facilities of Hezbollah as possible, including Hezbollah’s arsenals which had been stored along the Israeli border. Israel seemed to know roughly where the facilities were.

The Lebanese Armed Forces, much weaker than Hezbollah’s military forces, has already retreated 5 km from the border under the pressure from Israel. Israel is forcing the Lebanese people from nearly 30 villages near the border to relocate to the north. Israel’s goal for that is to turn the border area into an uninhabited buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah’s attack. The border area is a mountainous inland, making it difficult for the Israeli tanks to operate. In that area, Hezbollah’s guerrilla warfare will have the upper hand. Therefore, it has been pointed out that the maintenance of the buffer zone was difficult and even self-destructive.

Unfortunately for Hezbollah, this Islamic organization’s personnel and military assets have already been destroyed by Israel this time, and the organization has become significantly weakened. Besides, Iran has declared that it would not support Hezbollah, so the arms supplies to Hezbollah from Iran could be much less for the time being. As long as Israel maintains its advanced intelligence capability, it can monitor and, if necessary, destroy the arms supplies from Iran to Hezbollah. （Israel: Settler group advertises new properties in southern Lebanon）

The Cradle, an Islamic quasi-official medium, writes that Hezbollah has not weakened because even if the leader was killed, the replacement will quickly fill the absence of the predecessor. However, that is quite questionable. Even Moon of Alabama, having shown its brilliant analyses of the Ukrainian War situation, is now making major mistakes in its analyses of Israel’s invasion in Gaza and Lebanon. （After Nasrallah: ‘Command and Control’ in rapid recovery）
（Israel – Invading Lebanon To Prolong And Expand Its Supremacists War）

Andrew Korybko, a US analyst living in Russia, points out that the Islamic alt-media are dominated by the supporters of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran, who continue to distort their analysis and claim that Hezbollah and Hamas are in the winning position in their war. These alt-media, according to Korybko, criticize and eliminate those who correctly deny the distorted analysis by labeling them as the “Zionist puppets, Mossad, CIA,” or other false accusations. He is right.  I also wrote essentially the same thing in one of my recent articles. (I read his article afterwards.) Even in my country, Japan, many of those analysts, “the so-called journalists” or “the so-called experts” related to the Middle East, are actually the political activists pretending to be the analysts. Many of them are doing essentially the same thing as those Islamic alt-media supporters are doing. These Japanese so-called experts are doing it even without realizing what they are actually doing. （Everyone Was Wrong About The Latest Israeli-Lebanese War）（イスラエルのレバノン攻撃し放題）

It is true that Hezbollah is deeply rooted in the Lebanese society and cannot be eradicated. Just like Hamas is deeply rooted in the Gaza society. However, if Israel continues to destroy Hezbollah’s military assets such as their weapons and personnel, Hezbollah itself will significantly become weakened in the long term even if it is not eradicated. For now, there is no Hezbollah executive who can replace Nasrallah’s enormous charisma.  Besides, it will take time for the next leader to become charismatic. （Iran more vulnerable than ever to Israel attack）

When Israel killed Hamas’ Haniya in last July, its purpose was to give a warning to Iran by showing Israel’s high intelligence that it had known where Haniya had been staying in Tehran. Showing its high intelligence capability to Iran, Israel has also bombed the military bases built by the Iranian forces in Syria and Yemen,  Iran, having been aware of Israel’s high-level intelligence as such, has decided not to take a stance of going to a full-scale war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israel, by boasting its high intelligence, is successfully crushing Hezbollah. If Iran makes a move, Israel will attack the Iranian mainland. Iran does not want to go to war with Israel, so it only launches some missile attacks to maintain its reputation. In that way, Iran tacitly allows its beloved Hezbollah to be crushed. Iran has no choice but to let Israel destroy Hezbollah. Iran also allows the continuation of the Gaza War in which Israel is destroying the non-Shiite Hamas (whereas actually Israel is eliminating Palestine). Even Iran, which has been the most bold in the Middle East to confront the US and Israel, is like that, not to mention other Arab countries, which have always been the US puppets and Turkey under Erdogan, who is a populist who only speaks. They are also tacitly accept Israel’s intention as such even much more. （こっそりイスラエルを助けるアラブやトルコ）

Israel intends to accomplish the elimination of Palestine while the US Hegemony still remains. By doing that, Israel wants to complete Israel’s War of the Independence. Furthermore, it wants to attack and to weaken all the military forces in the Middle East countries (which are all under the umbrella of Iran) that are conducting their military attacks against Israel. That is probably the real intention of Netanyahu’s ongoing “seven-front war”. Even after completing these wars, Israel must continue to monitor the enemy countries to prevent them from resurrecting their military forces. It is possible for Israel to make peace with them while maintaining its hard-line stance. In case that Hamas, which has already been driven out by Israel, takes over Jordan and calls itself Palestine, Israel can make peace with MbS’s Saudi Arabia while conceding a passage to East Jerusalem. While criticizing the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the Russian government has declared that it will protect Israel’s security. If the US Hegemony declines, and the world turns to be multipolar, Russia and China will secure Israel’s existence. （Netanyahu’s ‘War On Seven Fronts’: Expanded Attacks On Yemen, Syria, Central Beirut）

There is a speculation that Israel is trying to provoke a war with Iran and to create a situation in which the US military is permanently stationed in the Middle East to protect Israel. A glance at this view-point makes sense. However, the history tells that the US military’s stationing in the Middle East has never been beneficial for Israel. Israel once dragged the US into the Lebanese Civil War, creating a situation in which the US military was stationed in Lebanon for Israel. Meanwhile, the US implemented a series of the foolish policies that exacerbated the Lebanese Civil War, forcing the US and Israel to retreat from Lebanon.  After 9/11, the US military invaded Iraq and defeated Saddam Hussein, and claimed the defeat of Israel’s enemies. Nonetheless, the US occupation of Iraq, which followed, became the self-destructive quagmire.  Iraq, then, increasingly tended to fall under the umbrella of the same Shiite, the anti-American Iran.

The US military is useless and even harmful to Israel. Israel needs the US weapons and funds, but not the US military. This time, therefore, Israel started the war on Hezbollah without consulting the US.  In fact, when Israel was just about to kill Nesrallah, Israel gave a phone call to the US Defense Secretary only a few minutes before Israel’s attack.  Lloyd J. Austin III, Pentagon chief, was furious so that he said to Israel that the US would not respond in a few minutes. Israel was making fun of the Pentagon. Israel (and other allies of the US) would be better off honing and using their own intelligence rather than relying on the US. (How about Japan, one of the main allies of the US? It has no effective high-level intelligence competence at all.)（Pentagon Chief ‘Blew Up’ as Israel Shortly Notified US of Strike on Nasrallah – Reports）

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Original in Japanese:  – tanakanews.com

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 7 Oct 2024.

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