The Ukraine War Becomes a Korean War

WAR RACKET--CATASTROPHE CAPITALISM, 21 Oct 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

14 Oct 2024 – It is predicted that Ukraine War will last for decades like the Korean War without ending the ceasefire. This view, considering the Ukraine War as another Korean War, was first pointed out by Serbian pro-Russian President Alekandar Vucić at the end of September this year. When asked to comment on Vucić’s suggestion that the Ukraine War will eventually become like the Korean War, continuing for 30 years, the Russian presidential spokesman did not deny the possibility of “Koreanization”, which caused a big stir. （Serbian President suggests war in Ukraine will end according to Korean scenario）（Putin’s chilling warning over ‘Korean scenario’ after claims war won’t end for 30 years）[Russia Responds to ‘Korean Scenario’ for End of Ukraine War (msn.com)]

Zelensky’s Ukrainian government has been forced to implement a naïve military strategy prepared by the United States, which is the mastermind behind the Ukraine War.  That strategy has caused the shortages of weapons and soldiers to Ukraine, as the result. Ukraine has become aware that they cannot continue the War, so they are hoping for a ceasefire. If the superior Russian military expands its occupation of Ukraine, takes Kiev, and drives out the current Russian-hostile government led by Zelensky and replaces it with a Russian puppet government, the War will end. However, Russia will go that far. The Russian military will not expand its military beyond those areas with many Russian residents, such as Donbas.  Donbas has already been separated from Ukraine and been annexed by Russia. （Is a ‘Korean Scenario’ in Ukraine Possible?）（ウクライナ停戦機運の強まり）[See this translation. → TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » The Momentum for the Ceasefire in Ukraine Grows ]

Russia will not overthrow the Russian-hostile government in Ukraine. Even if Zelensky falls from power in the future, another Russian-hostile leader will maintain the Russian-hostile government. As long as Ukraine is a hostile government, even if a ceasefire is realized, the War itself will not end. Ukraine has already been virtually defeated, and the anti-war mood is growing in the United States and Europe. Zelensky’s term as the Ukrainian President expired in last May.  Nonetheless, he has continued to serve as the President illegally on the grounds of a state of emergency. There are pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine, so Russia could support them from behind the scenes and try to democratically or undemocratically overthrow the government, but Putin won’t do that. As I have written many times before, Putin is secretly plotting to prolong the Ukraine War. （ウクライナ戦争で米・非米分裂を長引かせる）[See this translation. → TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » The Ukrainian War Prolongs the U.S. vs. Non-U.S. Divide ]（Putin wants a Korean scenario for Ukraine）[U.S. and Britain reportedly believe the Ukraine war could last 10-20 years, become a Russian quagmire | The Week]

As long as the Ukrainian War continues, Russia and China or the whole BRICS itself will unite. Therefore, the non-U.S. side will become the center of the world. The ongoing multipolarization will progress.  Russia will rise in both security and economic terms. And the decline of the U.S. and Europe and that of their hegemony will be accelerated. If the Ukraine War turns into become a Korean War of the European Version, Russia and China or BRICS itself will gain the upper hand and the U.S. and Europe will decline. As mentioned previously, Russia’s (hidden) strategy is to prolong the Ukrainian War. So, even if the Ukrainian military weakens, Russia will not destroy it. Rather, Russia will go easy on it and prolong the War. One example of the examples of this is that the Russian army has not expelled the Ukrainian army even three months after the invasion and the occupation of Kursk. （Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Enters Third Month, Has Become ‘Normalized’）（No more German military hardware for Ukraine）[U.S. Officials Say Russia Is Unlikely to Take Much More Ukrainian Territory – The New York Times (nytimes.com)] [BRICS and the Multipolar World – CIRSD]

Not only Putin, but also the hidden multipolar faction that controls the US Intelligence Community has been plotting to prolong the Ukrainian War, weaken the West, and shift the hegemony from the US side to the non-US side, making the world order the multipolarizised one. The Ukrainian War was started for that purpose. If the Ukrainian War becomes “Koreanized”, Zelensky will likely continue in his position for a long time. Since both Putin and the US Intelligence Community want Zelensky to continue to be as the Ukrainian President, he will hardly be assassinated or his regime will hardly be overthrown. （米諜報界を乗っ取って覇権を自滅させて世界を多極化）（Kremlin comments on reports Ukraine is ready for ceasefire）[Why the War Will Continue | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)] [Full article: War in Ukraine: Putin and the multi-order world (tandfonline.com) ] [Inevitable Fractures: The Ukraine War and the Global System – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]

It is believed that if Trump becomes the US President, he will mediate between Russia and Ukraine to bring about a ceasefire and the reconciliation to these two warring parties. The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia may be possible, but the reconciliation is next to impossible. Trump’s actions will not go beyond the scope of “Koreanization”.  Trump’s Vice President candidate Vance’s explains that Trump will propose the ceasefire on the current front line and turn the ceasefire line into a demilitarized zone. In response to this proposal, Russia will demand that Ukraine withdraw from Kursk, which is a part of the Russian territory. Ukraine will surely refuse to withdraw from there. Therefore, the ceasefire negotiations will be extremely difficult. （Trump’s plan on Ukraine envisages demilitarized zone, Kiev’s neutrality – running mate）

If Trump becomes the US President again, he may unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO. In that case, Europe, which is left behind, will be impoverished and will long for the detente and the reconciliation with Russia. If this happens, it will be difficult for Russia to maintain the Koreanization of the Ukraine War. Trump is a hegemony renegade, but it is unclear whether he is a hidden multipolarist who secretly aims for the multipolarization of the world and the rise of China-Russia BRICS. If it is assumed that Trump is a hidden multipolar supporter because he is a hegemony renouncer, he will not withdraw from NATO. In addition, the structure, in which the United States makes Europe a US puppet, continues. This structure enables the US&Europe to continue to treat Russia as their common enemy. And that also makes the Ukrainian War a Korean War of the European Version.  As mentioned above, Trump, if he is elected as the US President, will propose a ceasefire in Ukraine as he promised. Then, the ceasefire will be realized.  Unfortunately, however, that will not bring about a permanent peace to Ukraine. Medvedev, a close aide to Putin, who is in charge of the “so-called fighting”, also has doubts about Trump’s peace plan. （Medvedev casts doubt on Trump Ukraine promise）[The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Accelerating a Multi-Polar World (aljazeera.net)] [Ukraine war: A new multipolar world is emerging – Modern Diplomacy]

Trump’s first term (2017-21) as the US President was before the Ukrainian War. The scenario for the renunciation of the hegemony at that time included the reconciliation of the US and Russia, the disintegration of NATO, and the multipolarization of the world. At that time, the unilateral hegemony supporters were still strong in the US Intelligence Community. Because of that, Trump was falsely accused of the so-called Russiagate, which prevented him from reconciling with Russia. Today, however, as the Ukraine War has already started, the new scenario for the abandonment of the hegemony includes the continuation of the Ukraine War, the unification of the non-US sides, the emergence of the multipolar hegemonic power, and the decline of the US side that could become one (or two) poles of the new multipolarized world. Trump, if elected as the US President, might not interfere with the Koreanization of the Ukraine War. Although Hungary’s Orban has high hopes for Trump, his wishful expectation will probably miss the mark. （EU running out of time on Ukraine – Orban）[Emerging World Order After the Russia-Ukraine War] [The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Accelerating a Multi-Polar World | Al Jazeera Centre for Studies] [Full article: War in Ukraine: Putin and the multi-order world (tandfonline.com)]

Trump today is different from his first term. That is why he didn’t announce his Ukraine peace plan himself, but instead he had his Vice Presidential candidate Vance explain it. Trump has hardly explained his global strategy in this election campaign. He has not even explained why he is fully supporting Israel, a “vicious country committing crimes against humanity.” (Putin, MbS, and Erdogan all secretly support Israel. Recently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has also begun to take a pro-Israel stance.) （US election will decide Ukraine conflict – NATO state’s ex-PM）
（Why’d China Call For Paying Attention To Israel’s “Reasonable Security Concerns”?）[Israel–Saudi Arabia relations – Wikipedia] [Why the ‘Rest’ sided with Russia against the ‘West’, per Emmanuel Todd (substack.com)]

If the Ukraine War becomes a Korean War-like, Europe will decline rapidly. Europe cannot break away from its dependency on the US and its hostility towards Russia continues.  Europe, then, will gradually be unable to import essential natural resources from Russia, although Europe still continues to do so in the low profile. In fact, even after the outbreak of the War with Russia, Ukraine has allowed the Russian natural gas to be exported to Europe through its pipelines in exchange for the weapons supply from Europe. Recently, however, the Ukrainian government announced that it would end the agreement on the natural gas transit through its country at the end of this year without renewing it. （Ukraine To End Gas Transit Agreement With Russia）[Russia’s Oil Keeps Flowing Despite Sanctions. That’s Exactly How the U.S. Wants It. (msn.com)]

That, however, may be merely a threat to Europe, which has begun to hesitate to provide Ukraine with weapons and funds. The agreement could be extended at the last minute. Nevertheless, if the anti-war sentiment in Europe grows stronger, Ukraine might eventually stop allowing the gas to pass through. While Europe has pretended to have completely cut off the economic ties with Russia, it still continues to import the natural resources from Russia. If the Ukraine War becomes like the Korean War, Europe will no longer be able to import the natural resources from Russia. As the construction of the non-US economic system progresses, Russia might want to send its natural resources it has been sending to Europe to those countries that have been out of the US Umbrella. If the supply of the essential natural resources from Russia stops, the European economy will deteriorate dramatically. （米露の国際経済システム間の長い対決になる）[Senior US general warns about Russia’s growing influence in Africa | CNN Politics ]

French expert Emmanuel Todd pointed out that if Russia wins the Ukrainian War, NATO will collapse, and then, Europe will be liberated from its dependence on the US. That may be good. (On the contrary, if Russia loses the Ukraine War, Europe will be forever imprisoned in the cage of the dependence on the US). His pro-Russian, anti-US remarks seem to have caused a stir in the European public opinion. （Russian victory will liberate Europe – top French historian）[America’s Global Dominance Is Ending: What Comes Next? – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)] [Russian general threatens invasion of NATO countries and ‘restoration’ of Soviet Union (msn.com)] [How the U.S.’s European Allies Are Preparing for a Second Trump Term – The Atlantic] [Emmanuel Todd: Nato will disintegrate if Ukraine loses – UnHerd]

As one may notice, there is no Koreanization in Todd’s scenario. If the Ukraine War becomes Koreanized, Russia will neither win nor lose for next several years (or for next several decades). NATO, then, will not collapse, and Europe will languish in the prison of dependence on the US. Even if Russia will not win the War, it will gain a more advantageous position in the non-US world, particularly in the field of the economic development. Putin will not liberate Europe from the cage of the US. In the first place, Europe will neither leave NATO nor actively become independent from the US. That is because Europe cannot do so. Those Europeans, who pray for Russia’s victory in the Ukraine War, the collapse of NATO, and the achievement of Europe’s passive independence from the US, are no different from those Japanese, who are solely dependent on the US. However, one of the main differences between these two peoples is that Japanese do not aspire to become a hegemonic power, whereas Europeans, who are currently dependent on the US, seeks to become a hegemonic power.  Europeans’ aspiration as such is fool and hypocrite. These Europeans are taking advantage of the tiger’s power. Knowing that difference, I believe that it is good that Europe is to be in decline. （潰されていくドイツ）（自滅させられた欧州） [The Looming Imperial Crisis That Could Topple American Hegemony | The Nation ] [The long game: China’s grand strategy to displace American order (brookings.edu)] [European Global Hegemony (France) World Conquest : r/hoi4 (reddit.com)] [Zelenskyy warns US of NATO collapse, war with Russia if Ukraine falls (usatoday.com)] [ World on the brink as NATO plans to move nuclear-capable fighters to Putin’s doorstep – World News – News – Daily Express US (the-express.com)]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs, were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
3. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to interpret, understand or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: 朝鮮戦争化するウクライナ (tanakanews.com)

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 21 Oct 2024.

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