Progress in the Overall Solution of the Middle East Problems
CONFLICT RESOLUTION - MEDIATION, 25 Nov 2024
Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service
17 Nov 2024 – This article is the continuation of “The Attempts to Resolve the Middle East Problems Comprehensively”.
02 As I wrote three days ago, attempts to solve the Middle East overall, centered on the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah (Lebanon), are progressing further. Russia and Iran are being invited into the ceasefire and reconciliation negotiation. Israel is beginning to think that Russia (but not the United States) should be the central mediator of the ceasefire. Israel wants to achieve a ceasefire and the stabilization (i.e. the creation of a Cold Peace system) by forcing the three Iranian-affiliated forces of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah to make concessions. The United States has viewed all of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah as the enemies. Therefore, it has no pipeline for the negotiations or dialogues. In contrast, Russia has been friendly with all these three forces, so it can easily become the mediator in their negotiations.
-（Israel looks to strike deal with Russia to crush Hezbollah and bring peace to Lebanon）
-（At War in Ukraine, Putin Emerges as Potential Peace Broker in Middle East)
– [Hezbollah involvement in the Syrian civil war]
– [Iranian intervention in the Syrian civil war]
– [Iran aims to strengthen Syria’s regime]
– [Iran, Hezbollah Strongholds Make Syria a ‘Hunting Ground’ for Israel]
– [Can Iran count on Russia to come to its aid in a war with Israel?]
– [U.S. envoy says truce in Israel-Hezbollah war ‘within our grasp’ as conflict in Gaza continues]
- The United States has been hostile towards Russia due to the Ukraine War and other issues. Therefore, it is actually impossible for the US and Russia to play the role of the arbitrators together. Nonetheless, if Israel has to choose one of the countries as its arbitrator, common sense dictates that Israel could choose the US as its arbitrator because this Jewish state is close to the US. Unfortunately, the US has been hostile to Iran as well. Therefore, the US is not suited to acting as the arbitrator. Besides, the US Hegemony in the Middle East is declining. A large part of the hegemony in the Middle East, which the US has lost (especially its relationship with Iran) over the years, has been transferred to Russia. Regardless of that, even though how Israel is pro-American, Israel, unlike other American puppet countries such as Japan and Germany, has successfully turned the US into Israel’s puppet and has been controlling it. If Japan and Germany were to become friendly with Russia, the US would severely criticize and punish these two countries. But Israel can do as it pleases. Actually, Israel wants Russia and the US to arbitrate the entire Middle East solution separately. In fact, Israel is quietly urging Russia to push aside the US and is attempting to make Russia the main arbitrator in the Middle East. Israel has been close to Russia for some time, though it has kept a low profile.
– [Who controls whom, between Israel and the United States?]
– [Why does USA blindly support Israel? | Why USA Give So Much Money to Israel?]
– [How US blind support for Israel could end its global hegemony]
– [Hegemony of the United States and the Middle East]
– [Netanyahu seeks Putin’s help with hostages in Gaza]
– [Putin says Russia in contact with Israel and Iran, willing to mediate if asked]
– [Benjamin Netanyahu Stands Between Israel and Peace]
- Donald Trump was fiercely hostile to Iran during his first term. It was hard to imagine Trump negotiating with Iran for Israel. Now, however, some reports have emerged that Elon Musk, who has become Trump’s close aide, has met informally with Ambassador Amir Saeed [a.k.a. Saeid] Iravani to the United Nations, who is also Iran’s de facto representative in the United States. Isn’t Trump sending Musk to meet Iravani at Netanyahu’s request? Trump highly values Musk’s unique insights and ideas, and wants to use them in his administration’s strategy. So, it is highly probable that Trump could send Musk to attend various meetings and lets him see and hear things to extract his ideas.
-（Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say）
– [Musk said to have met with Iran’s ambassador]
– [Trump, Musk solidify bond with Texas trip for Starship rocket launch]
- When Musk met Iravani, he proposed the de-escalation of the relation between the US and Iran. The Iranian representative, then, made it a condition that the U.S. government lift the economic sanctions. It is deemed that if the U.S. lifts the sanctions, Iran might work with Hezbollah and Syria to achieve a ceasefire with Israel. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry later denied that Iravani had met with Musk, saying that the reports were false. Probably, Iran, Trump and Israel wish to play as the mutual enemies until all of their relevant negotiations will be successfully completed.
-（Iranian officials deny meeting with Elon Musk）
-（Iran denies envoy met with Musk）
– [Iran–Israel proxy conflict]
– [World leaders urge Israel not to retaliate on Iran]
– [How Hardliners Pushed Iran Into Attacking Israel — And What Happens Next]
– [Iran’s War and Peace Dilemma]
– [Iran’s New President Offers Israel Peace As He Warns It Drags Him into War]
– [Irans UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani: Iran is fully prepared to take further measures]
– [Tehran’s calculations to avoid all-out war with Israel and the US]
– [Musk and Iranian UN envoy discuss US-Iran tensions]
- Iran has participated in the Syrian Civil War since 2011, sending weapons to Lebanon via Syria and forcing Hezbollah to attack Israel. Meanwhile, Iran’s influence has expanded considerably over the past 13 years. Israel is eager to roll back all that with this onslaught, to neutralize Hezbollah, and to move Lebanon and Syria from under the umbrella of Iran to that of the Arab-Turkish side, reducing Iran’s sphere of influence. On top of that, Israel is willing to build a (Cold) Peace relationship with the Iranians and to survive in the Middle East after the decline of the US Hegemony. However, Israel, with the US military, has been bombing the Iranian bases and weapons distribution routes in Syria. The Islamist alt-media has been touting that the US and Israel are trying to reignite the Syrian Civil War. That is a misleading view, but unfortunately I also accepted their view for a while.
-（シリア内戦の再燃？）See this translation. → [The Syrian Civil War Rekindled?]
-（厚顔無恥なイスラエルの成功）See this translation. → [The Success of Shameless Israel]
– [What we know about Israel’s attack on Iran]
– [Israel Did Not Hit Iran Nuke Site: UN, Hezbollah ‘Reads US Proposal, Ceasefire In Netanyahu’s Hands’]
– [Fathom: 7 October and the Alt-Media – a Critical Examination]
– [Critical Media Literacy and Islamist Online Propaganda]
- Contrary to the Islamic alt-media’s view, the real situation has been different. Israel has been destroying the Iranian bases in Syria in order to reduce Iran’s sphere of their influence and to ultimately build a Cold Peace relationship with Iran. Trump intends to reduce the US involvement in the Syrian Civil War when he takes office. He wants to finish destroying the Iranian bases in Syria before the Presidential Inauguration on 20 January 2025, and to bring about a ceasefire to Syria. The Israeli military alone cannot keep up, so the US military is also bombing Syria. The Russian military has supported the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War. Russia has a base in Syria, which is equipped with Russia’s new system to intercept the enemy missiles flying into the Syrian Airspace. As such, Russia is able to intercept and block the US-Israeli air strikes into Syria. Nonetheless, Russia does not use the new intercept system for the protection of the Syrian Airspace. Russia remains silent now. This Russia’s attitude implies that Russia might tolerate Israel’s plans (including the erasure of Palestine).
-（Israel Said Seeking Lebanon Ceasefire By January As ‘Gift’ To Trump）
– [What’s behind Russia’s ‘soft power’ moves on Israel-Palestine?]
– [Russia is trying to exploit America’s divisions over the war in Gaza]
– [The Gaza War Has Convinced Russia It Was Right All Along]
- Iran’s influence over Syria and Lebanon will not be completely reduced in the near future, but that is not a serious problem for now. Hezbollah, a Shia group with political power, will continue to remain loyal to Iran. Najib Mitati, Prime Minister of Lebanon, recently asked Iran to mediate a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. Iran and Israel may negotiate in the foreseeable future. The hostile structure in the Middle East is now being collapsed. Some new type of negotiations, which have never been seen before, have now begun. Originally, it was the British Empire that made the Middle East full of hostility, and instigated and solidified conflicts between some Middle East countries, such as Sunni vs. Shia, in order to maintain the British Hegemony. Now, however, with the disappearance of the British and American Hegemony, it is the logical consequence that the conflict structure in the Middle East will be resolved in due course.
-（Lebanese leader asks Iran to help secure a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel）
– [Beyond Hezbollah, Why The “Shia Question” Defines Lebanon’s Fate]
– [The role of Hezbollah among its Shia constituents]
– [Lebanon: The Shiite Dimension]
– [Britain in Palestine 1917-1948]
– [Britain’s role in the occupation of Palestine]
- During the Biden Administration (due to problems with his dementia and Harris’ incompetence), the US refused to engage in any dialogue with the hostile countries such as Russia, Iran and North Korea. In addition, the puppet allies of the US have been prohibited from talking to the enemies of the US. As the result, those non-American countries, having been considered as the enemy countries of the US, have united in BRICS. Furthermore, other country groups and some pro-American countries such as Turkey, India and Saudi Arabia, which are able to stand on their own independently from the influence of the United States, have also strengthened their cooperation with the non-American countries with the emphasis on their national interests, accelerating both the decline of the US Hegemony and the multipolization of the world order. After Trump’s inauguration as the US President, there could be a major shift in the US diplomacy, meaning that he will probably meet with the non-American leaders. During his first term, Trump preferred the dramatic summit diplomacy, such as continuing to meet with Kim Jong-Un and inviting Xi Jinping to Mar-a-Lago. Given Trump’s personality, he will likely want to do something similar also in his second term. However, Trump is a [hidden] hegemony abandoner. He does not want the US Hegemony to be revived through his summit diplomacy.
– [Is the United States Creating a ‘Legion of Doom’?]
– [China, Russia, Iran, North Korea? Just How Many Wars Can America Fight?]
-（How Trump can navigate the new multi-polar world）
– [How US can cope with a new, multipolar world order: A discussion with Prof Jeffrey Sachs]
– [The U.S. is unprepared for a multipolar world]
– [‘Fight US hegemony’: IRGC commander calls for Muslim nations’ army; mocks Trump’s MAGA]
– [China and Russia’s Growing BRICS Bloc Speeds Decline of U.S. Influence]
– [As BRICS cooperation accelerates, is it time for the US to develop a BRICS policy?]
– [BRICS summit shows a ‘multipolar world’ is emerging, Putin says]
– [Future Scenarios for The Middle East, Post-U.S. Hegemony]
- Contrary to that, however, Trump refused to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This means that he hit Ishiba with his plan to abandon the US Hegemony. It goes without saying that his refusal of the Japanese Prime Minister was actually the opposite of Trump’s summit diplomacy. Ishiba was stunned by that. Then, at Xi Jinping’s request, Ishiba met the Chinese leader. It was as if they were passively rebuilding the cold Japan-China relationship. China has scooped up Japan, which had been abandoned by the US. It is the multi-polarization plan that is as if Trump and Xi Jinping were communicating behind the scenes to push Japan and South Korea out of the US’s umbrella and to lead them to China’s side. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has grasped Trump’s movements and is using them for its own advantage. Japan has been manipulated without even knowing why. Germany, a de facto vassal state of the United States like Japan, wasted its national power by supporting Ukraine and being hostile to Russia. Now, Germany is being collapsed without even being aware of what is happening to their country. In general, puppet or vassal states are overall pathetic and stupid for getting what they deserve. On the other hand, those pro-American countries, including Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India, which are independent from the pressure or influence of the United States, are somehow managing to navigate themselves in the new multipolar world situation.
– [The US Vassal State Of Germany Comes Apart]
– [‘Germany is a US Vassal State’: German MP Blasts Europe’s Complicity in Gaza Genocide]
– [Why has the German government collapsed?]
-（Europe Will Draw The Short Straw In The Next Trade War）
– [How America will collapse (by 2025)]
– [Is japan a vassal of the US?]
– [Disinfo: Japan is a vassal state of the US and follows Washington’s policy instructions]
– [Tokyo’s baleful willingness to be US’ vassal]
– [Jumpy US allies face their first week in Trumpworld 2.0]
– [Trump leaves European allies fearing for their future]
– [Xi, Ishiba to Boost China-Japan Ties Ahead of Trump Presidency]
– [Japan and China Dump US Treasuries Before Trump’s Victory]
– [Xi meets Ishiba: What explains China’s new-found warmth for Japan]
– [Japan’s PM Ishiba, Xi agree to work on ‘constructive’ bilateral ties]
– [Japan and multipolarity in the Indo-Pacific: National mobilisation and resilience]
- While Germany feels miserable, Japan does not. This difference is because, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, Japan is unaware that it has been manipulated by the US. Therefore, Japan does not know why. Unlike Germany, however, Japan is able to manage to live in the multipolar world in no time. In fact, that is necessary for Japan today from now on. It is as if Japan is being saved by some unknown great power. Good for Japan! That is probably the way Japan can survive in the contemporary international situation. Actually, Japan does not aim to become one of the poles at all. Besides, most Japanese people are unaware of the emergence of a new world of multipolarity. Given that Japan’s current situation is like that, it may be necessary for the Japanese people to worship the “two Great Deities”, Trump and Xi Jinping. Hail Multipolarity and Light! The Great Multipolarity is to bring about the progress and development to every corner of the world! May so be it! Thank you!
– [Germany is on the brink of collapse]
– [Germany has become Europe’s political wasteland]
– [What Trump’s win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China]
– [Japan Braces for Trump 2.0]
– [Japan PM Ishiba hopes to work with Trump, not confront him]
– [Multipolarization gaining traction across globe]
– [Global South’s support for multilateralism, open economy key for G20 Summit]
– [China adds Japan to visa-free scheme as political tensions ease]
– [China’s evolving approach to multipolar world order in 2024]
Translator’s Comment:
On 21 November 2024, after the publication of Sakai Tanaka’s original version of the commentary essay, whose English translation is mentioned above, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued the arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister of Israel), Yoav Gallant (former-Defense Minister of Israel) and Mohammed Deif (Military Chief of Hamas). See. → [(21 November 2024) Statement of ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC on the issuance of arrest warrants in the Situation in the State of Palestine | International Criminal Court]
That could seriously affect one of the main pro-Israel politician Donald Trump and his plan for the Middle East in his second term as the US President. Besides, he has been hostile to the ICC over the years. See → [(11 September 2018) Trump Administration Threatens International Criminal Court Judges and Prosecutors for Doing Their Jobs] and [(22 May 2024) Trump foreign policy adviser urges sanctions on ICC officials].
Meanwhile, the Biden Administration (US) and the Starmer government (UK) allowed Ukraine to use the US-made ATACMS longer-range missiles and the British-made Storm Shadow long-range missiles to attack the Russian territory. See. → [The last actions Biden administration will take before Trump comes in] and [Biden’s Mindless Escalation Is a Final Betrayal of Ukraine]
Responding to that, Russia has began to cautiously escalate the Ukraine War. See. → [Putin says Ukraine war is going global] and [Russia’s Putin touts new missile, delivers menacing warning to NATO].
How will Trump successfully bring about the ceasefire to Ukraine in the above-mentioned new situations? See. → [Can Trump really end the Russia-Ukraine war in a day?], [The Ukraine War May Spiral Out of Control Before Trump Takes Office] and [How Mike Huckabee could derail Trump’s promised Israel policy]
Notes:
- The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs, were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
- The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
- The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to interpret, understand or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
_______________________________________
After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com
Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life. His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.
Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate
Original in Japanese: 中東全体解決の進展
Tags: Conflict Resolution, Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Mediation, Middle East, Netanyahu, Palestine/Israel, Putin, Russia, Solutions, Trump, USA, Ukraine
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 25 Nov 2024.
Anticopyright: Editorials and articles originated on TMS may be freely reprinted, disseminated, translated and used as background material, provided an acknowledgement and link to the source, TMS: Progress in the Overall Solution of the Middle East Problems, is included. Thank you.
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