The End of the EU and Euro

EUROPE, 9 Dec 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

Translator’s note: The article below can be considered as the continuation of TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » Strengthening Liberal Totalitarianism

2 Dec 2024 — In the German political world where the government has collapsed, the right-wing party AfD (Alternative für Deutschland, Alternative for Germany), which is gaining support and seats (from the perspective of the liberal media authorities, it is “far-right”), announced a new pledge at the end of November 2024, which states that Germany will withdraw from the EU, the euro, and the Paris Agreement on climate change, end sanctions against Russia, and resume imports of oil and gas resources from Russia. The pledge will be officially decided at the party conference in January and will be made into a pledge for the Federal Election in February next year. The AfD has criticized the EU in its previous pledges, but this is the first time it has called for withdrawal. If Germany, the largest economic power in Europe and the center of the EU and the euro, withdraws, both the EU and the euro will collapse. （Germany’s far-right AfD to campaign to leave EU, euro and Paris deal）and（Germany’s far-right AfD vows to part ways with EU, Paris deal, euro）

2. The AfD says that Germany should leave the euro, create a new domestic currency (new Deutsche Mark?) and create an inter-state community to replace the EU, because it is irrational for Germany to continue using the euro as its currency, which means Germany should continue to bail out the EU (including the debt-ridden southern European countries). Regarding the issue of the global warming, they say that they will withdraw Germany from the Paris Agreement on global warming measures, because the anthropogenic theory of global warming is being made out to be an infallible scientific agreement through the political pressure (the anthropogenic theory is actually wrong). I think that the idea that the anthropogenic theory is a political fraud is completely true. [European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Eurozone Crisis Causes, Impacts]（欧米の自滅と多極化を招く温暖化対策) and [Russian Academic: We Are Ready To Use Nukes To Win War]
3. From the perspective of the liberal (i.e, the American elite) media authorities in the US, Europe and Japan, the AfD is a dangerous far-right party that advocates wrong ideas, and the AfD’s election pledges are also dangerous and mistaken ideas. The German elites’ political parties (i.e. SPD, CDU, etc.) are trying to outlaw the AfD. （The End Of Democracy? Vote To Ban AfD Party Will Occur Before German Snap Elections） [Why far-right parties are gaining in Germany, Europe, and worldwide] and [What’s behind the rise of the far right in Germany?]
4. However, I can point out that it is those elites who have enforced erroneous and dangerous measures in many areas, such as the Ukraine War (i.e. the hostility towards Russia), the hostility towards China (i.e. the trade suspension), the global warming, the immigration issues, the finances, the previous COVID-19 measures, and the awakening movement (i.e. the distortion and reverse discrimination of gender, etc.), and have strengthened the totalitarianism that crushes those who oppose them. The AfD and BSW [Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht] (Saala-Wagenknecht) in Germany are gaining seats due the support of voters who have realized the elites’ big mistake. The more the elites try to outlaw the AfD, the more popular it becomes among voters. The AfD listens to people’s dissatisfaction and turns it into policy, so it is democratic. The elites who are forcing through these erroneous policies are trying to cling to power by turning to totalitarianism to oppress opponents such as the AfD. [A discomfort with Western liberalism is growing in Eastern Europe]   (リベラル全体主義・リベ全の強まり ) →  See its translation. → [Strengthening Liberal Totalitarianism]
5. The view-point of AfD is appropriate in terms of democracy and peace in Europe. On the other hand, the elites are wrong and “evil.” The EU has been dominated by those totalitarian liberals such as von der Leyen at the top, and they continue to carry out the erroneous and self-destructive policies such as the hostility towards Russia, the measures against global warming, the immigration issues, and the awakening movements. It is the logical consequence that the AfD and its supporters want Germany to leave the EU. The euro may cause a financial collapse before the AfD takes power. If the euro is in a healthy state, it will be difficult for Germany to leave, but if it collapses, it is only logical for Germany to leave. With the Ukraine War likely to end with the defeat of the US and Europe, hostility towards Russia has also become an irrational strategy. The major media are also evil for purposely ignoring and not reporting on the US and European defeat, leaving the American people in ignorance. Meanwhile, AfD’s measures, such as the withdrawal from the EU and the euro, the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and the reconciliation with Russia, which deemed “radical” until recently, will gradually be considered reasonable policies in the near future. [The AfD: Party of Peace] （欧州エリート支配の崩壊） [The rise of Germany’s most successful far-right party since the Nazis]  [Why Global Elites Won’t End War in Ukraine Until Russia is Destroyed]  and  [Ursula von der Leyen’s Second Term: Toward an Autocratic European Union?]
6. According to the survey of the citizens of the twenty-seven EU countries by the German social action organization Bertelsmann Stiftung, the number of the people who think that Europe should break away from its dependence on the US and decide its security policy independently has increased from 25% in 2017 to 63% this year. Europe’s traditional ruling class (i.e. the liberal elites) has been dependent on the US, but that is no longer the majority opinion of the public. (In this poll, the independence from the US seems to mean “Europe should be on the equal footing with the US within NATO, and Europe will be able to adopt a security policy independent of the US.” However, as long as the European countries stay in the NATO, they will be forced to be completely dependent on the US, and there is no way that they will be on the equal footing with the US. This is a common question among the media authorities, but this question is unrealistic. If Europe is to be independent from the US, it has no choice but to leave NATO.) （Europeans prefer greater independence from the US）（Most EU citizens back breaking from US – poll）and  [Trump win will force Europe to step up defense efforts, say France and Germany]
7. Right-wing parties in Europe are gaining support not only for the AfD, but also for Le Pen in France, Orban in Hungary, and Fico in Slovakia. Recently, the right-wing Georgescu is winning the Romanian Presidential Election (although the elites, who are the puppets of the US and the UK, are complaining that Russia interfered in the election). The European liberal elites are becoming the totalitarians in order to cling to power, and, therefore, they are becoming increasingly unpopular and being driven out. In France, the left-wing parties that joined the coalition government under Macron are arguing intensifyingly with Macron, and the government budget is not being passed, leading to the collapse of the government. In both Germany and France, the elite governments are collapsing, while the right wing is becoming stronger. This trend will continue in the future. （Right-Wing NATO Critic Wins First Round Of Romanian Election）（French Govt Collapse Imminent As Le Pen Piles On Pressure Over Budget Vote）[The story of liberalism’s fall from grace – New Eastern Europe]   [Von der Leyen faces Socialist revolt over her far-right flirtation with Meloni]  [How the far right took over the mainstream]  and  [The Death of the European Center-Left]
8. The AfD’s bullishness is also boosted by Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election. The policies of Trump and the AfD (and the right wing in many European countries) are similar in that they will stop the liberal active immigration policy that is causing society to self-destruct and increasing irrational burdens, and will stop the irrational global warming measures based on the fraudulent anthropogenic theory. Trump has pledged to resume oil and gas development without addressing the fraudulence of the anthropogenic theory, but Germans are so serious that the AfD has pointed out the fraudulence of the anthropogenic theory. Good. （歪曲が軽信され続ける地球温暖化人為説）[5 Big Lies About Climate Change, And How Researchers Trained A Machine To Spot Them] and [A Long Record of Lies on Climate Change | Union of Concerned Scientists]
9. Trump pledged to cease the hostilities in Ukraine on the day of his inauguration. Putin secretly hopes that the US side will continue to view him as an enemy in order to maintain the strengthening of the unity among the non-US sides. If there is a ceasefire, the conflict between the US and the non-US sides will be resolved, and there will be some countries among the non-US side that want to resume the relations with the US and Europe, which is a concern that the unity of the non-US sides might weaken. Nevertheless, however, Putin is said to have signed and decided to accept Trump’s Ukraine peace plan (with the condition that Ukraine’s NATO membership be permanently denied, not postponed). （‘Contours Of A Trump Peace Deal’: Kremlin Insiders Discuss Putin’s Initial Reaction）
10. In a related story, the Russian military has begun to corner the Ukrainian military occupying Kursk, a part of the Russian territories, and has recaptured 40% of Kursk’s land. The Russian government has said that it will not accept the ceasefire or peace negotiations as long as Ukraine occupies Kursk. However, if the Russian military were serious, they could recapture Kursk immediately, but they have not done so. Russia has deliberately allowed Ukraine to occupy Kursk, making the peace negotiation impossible. Recently, Russia has been continuing the process of expelling the Ukrainian troops from Kursk. Around the time of Trump’s inauguration in late January 2025, the Russian military may just expel the Ukrainian troops from Kursk, and Putin may agree to begin the peace negotiations with Ukraine （Ukraine has lost over 40% of territory previously gained in Kursk incursion, Reuters reports） [2024 Kursk offensive]  [Ukrainian incursion in Kursk struggles as Russians retake territory | Stars and Stripes]  and（ウクライナ戦争で米・非米分裂を長引かせる）
11. However, if the Ukrainian ceasefire is achieved, won’t the unity of the non-US weaken, and going against Putin’s wishes? When considering this, if we take into account the fact that a new movement is taking place in Germany and other European countries where the right wing is crushing the liberal elites, the conclusion could be different. If Europe collapses and loses its political and economic strength, the non-US countries will no longer be able to break down its unity, because even if Ukraine ceases to fire, and even if Ukraine’s relations between Russia, China, and Europe improve, Europe will no longer be the attractive trading partner for the non-US side. With Trump, the US is threatening to impose punitive high tariffs and sanctions on the non-US sides that avoid the use of the dollar and try to undermine the US hegemony. No matter what happens to Ukraine, Trump’s relationship with the non-US (especially China) will not improve.（How Trump’s dump on de-dollarization affects BRICS）[Putin Snubs Trump’s Threat To BRICS Nations: ‘Russia & Allies Will Shun Dollar…’] and [US is Disappointed with France’s Decision to Join China: Collapse of Dollar?]
12. Trump may mediate between Ukraine and Russia to bring about a ceasefire. Meanwhile, however, the governments of Germany and France are becoming collapsed. Europe is rapidly moving away from being the center of the world alongside the United States. Even if Ukraine ceases to fight, the United States and Europe may not return to the center of the world. The more Trump imposes the US economic sanctions on the non-American countries, the more non-American countries will build a new world system that does not depend on the United States. Seeing the overall situation, Putin may have decided to go along with Trump’s Ukraine peace plan.   [Germany’s normally stable government has collapsed. Here’s why]  [France’s toppled government adds to Europe’s larger political problems] [Putin Snubs Trump’s Threat To BRICS Nations: ‘Russia & Allies Will Shun Dollar…’]  [Why Donald Trump Warned India, Russia, China With Dollar; Why USA Fears De-Dollarisation?] and [US is Disappointed with France’s Decision to Join China: Collapse of Dollar?]
13. Trump has proposed a ceasefire in Ukraine and have the military forces of the NATO European countries defend the ceasefire line. However, since the governments of Germany and France have actually almost collapsed, These European countries are not in the position to send their troops to Ukraine. The European elites have said they will support Ukraine until Russia is destroyed, but their unrealistic stance has lost the support of the people, and they are falling out of power. The right-wing parties, which are replacing those elites and becoming the majority, are taking realistic measures such as reconciling with Russia, resuming oil and gas imports, and ending support for Zelensky. Ukraine will remain unstable even after the ceasefire. [NATO calls for urgent Russo-Ukraine conflict negotiations]（Trump’s national security advisor pick reveals Ukraine peace vision）[Crisis for France and Germany comes at terrible moment for EU] and [Ukraine-Russia war latest: Nato ‘waiting for Trump’ over key decision as Putin’s planes ‘stole children’]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs, were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: 終わりゆくEUやユーロ

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 9 Dec 2024.

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