The Idea That the World Will Change when Trump Returns to Power

ANGLO AMERICA, 20 Jan 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

14 Jan. 2025 — With Donald Trump returning to the US Presidency at the inauguration on 20 January 2025, some pieces of the political expectancy are being made, including “many major conflicts in the world will be resolved”, “Trump’s return to power will make the world a better place” and more, which are amazing. The Gaza Ceasefire is one of them. I wrote the article on 18 December 2024,  entitled “Gaza Ceasefire and the Resumption of the Abraham Accords.” It was a prediction article that Hamas would release some of the hostages and ceasefire with Israel by Trump’s inauguration, and in return Saudi Arabia would move forward with the reconciliation with Israel (i.e. Abraham Accords).  (Gaza Ceasefire and the Resumption of the Negotiation on the Abraham Accords)

2. Since that time, the Jerusalem Post and others have continued to publish articles such as the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have stalled…, have progressed a little…, and stalled again... I was wondering if my prediction was wrong again, but suddenly, on 13 January 2025, some rumors started to spurt out that “the deal will be concluded within this week. As early as within 24 hours…” （Hamas claims it made concessions for Gaza ceasefire）and （Gaza truce could happen ‘this week’ – White House）
3. There is one week until Trump’s inauguration. If they are going to stage the Gaza Ceasefire with Trump’s return, it would not be surprising if the hostages were released and a ceasefire was agreed upon within this week. There are articles like “Hamas’s stance has suddenly softened, so Israel is responding in surprise.” It’s laughable. Hamas has not actually changed its stance, but Israel is moving the Gaza Ceasefire negotiations and getting the media and analysts to portray it as if Hamas has changed its stance.（Israel ‘caught off guard’ by Hamas flexibility in hostage deal talks – report）
4. The War in Lebanon, where Israel is crushing Hezbollah, has been in the ceasefire since October last year, but Israel has actually continued to attack Lebanon as it pleases “if necessary.” Israel has included a clause in the Ceasefire Agreement with Hezbollah, which allows Israel to attack Lebanon whenever necessary, making it appear as if there is the ceasefire, but in fact there is no ceasefire at all. Similarly, Israel will likely continue to attack as necessary in the Agreement with Hamas. (The Loss of Hezbollah and Iran)
5. Israel’s goal is “to erase Gaza” and “to erase Palestine” (i.e. the West Bank and Gaza). Israel wants to eliminate Palestine through the ethnic cleansing and the annex of the West Bank and Gaza to Israel. If there is an honest ceasefire, Hamas will begin to revive. And then, Europe and others will likely start talking about the idea of ​​rebuilding Gaza. So, Israel will not be able to achieve its goal of eradicating Gaza. Trump will let Israel do whatever it wants. In return, Israel is staging a Gaza Ceasefire and presenting the story that “Trump has returned and the world has become a better place.” In reality, however, Israel has no intention to have the “real ceasefire”.
6. Israel wants to normalize the diplomatic relations (i.e. Abraham Accords) with Saudi Arabia, which is the mediator between the Islamic world and the Arab countries. If Saudi Arabia reconciles with Israel, the entire Arab world will move toward the reconciliation with Israel. Then, the Islamic world’s hostility toward Israel will decrease. Israel is trying to achieve the incredibly ambitious and seemingly impossible goal of erasing Palestine while reconciling with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world. Those liberals and others who hate Israel tend to say, “That is impossible.” In reality, however, it is not that impossible.
7. Saudi Arabia has let the UAE (which is a de facto subordinate of Saudi Arabia) normalized the relation with Israel. However, Saudi Arabia itself has not normalized the relation with Israel. Saudi Arabia hopes to normalize the diplomatic relations with Israel if it can extract one more concession from Israel and gain some semblance of dominance as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world. Previously, Saudi Arabia said, “We will not reconcile with Israel unless Israel makes the Palestinian statehood function well,” but that is no longer possible. Israel has crushed the forces that supported Palestine and fought against Israel, such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Assad. The EU, the US Democratic Party, and the liberal faction in the West, which supported Palestine, have also fallen. Saudi Arabia will only be at the disadvantage if it continues to insist on Palestine. If Israel makes the minimum additional concessions, it would like to reconcile and normalize the diplomatic relations with Israel as soon as possible. There is a scenario in motion in which Saudi Arabia will formally reconcile with Israel after Trump takes office, using the (act of) Gaza Ceasefire as the additional concession. Not only the Gaza Ceasefire, but also the normalization of the diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia (which means the achievement of the Abraham Accords) is likely to be the “firework” to celebrate Trump’s return to power.（Gaza hostage deal can be reached within a month, sources tell ‘Post’ ）
8. In addition, Israel has forced Iran to accept its own self-destruction by watching Israel crush Hezbollah and its puppet HTS crush Assad in Syria as the congratulatory gesture to Trump. In return for Iran’s acceptance of its own destruction after being defeated by Israel, Putin’s Russia is strengthening its strategic partnership with Iran in the fields of energy and military. Besides, Xi Jinping’s China is behind Putin. In return for acknowledging Israel’s strength, Iran will be able to achieve the development in the de-Americanized world system. （Russia-Iran Power Play: Strategic Alliance Taking Shape）and（Russia, Iran To Sign ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ Treaty This Week）
9. China and Russia have been supporting Iran for some time. From now on, however, Israel and Trump will also tacitly support this. Previously, the US and Israel had tried to crush Iran. However, as Lebanon and Syria are transforming from the Iranian to Israeli puppets, the US and Israel will no longer view Iran as their enemy. Recently, the US (both Trump and Biden) and Israel have publicly stated that they will bomb Iran if necessary, but this is a brilliant diversion by the US and Israel. As the US tacitly strengthens its stance of tolerating Iran’s development on the non-US side, in return Iran has endured its affiliated Hezbollah and Assad being crushed by Israel and its puppet (HTS).（Military Action Against Iran Will Be a ‘Real Possibility’ Under Trump）
10. The United States and Israel are intensifying their military attacks on Yemen’s Houthis, stating that they will crush them in line with Trump’s inauguration. The Iranian-affiliated Houthis are the last force that continues to actually attack Israel. Their boss, Iran, will likely tolerate Houthis being crushed by the United States and Israel. Iran, which has tolerated the crushing of Hezbollah and Assad, cannot protect only Houthis. Houthis will also be crushed. Houthis, Hezbollah, and Assad are being used as “the human sacrifices” to celebrate Trump’s inauguration.（Recognizing Somaliland: A geopolitical game-changer for West Asia?）
11. If a civil war reignites in Syria or in Lebanon and if these countries fall into chaos, the forces hostile to Israel could grow again. That is not good for Israel. That is why Israel wants to stabilize Syria and Lebanon. Nonetheless, those liberal analysts, who are hostile to Israel, predict, like a curse, that “Syria and Lebanon will fall into chaos.” Unfortunately, they may probably be wrong. It may be highly likely that both Syria and Lebanon will become surprisingly stable.（CIA Director Reiterates There’s No Evidence Iran Has Decided To Build a Nuclear Bomb）and (The Attempts to Resolve the Middle East Problems Comprehensively)
12. The largest force in Syria that wants to separate and become independent is the Kurds. However, there is no sign of them doing so. There are some reports that HTS is committing violent acts like the Taliban did in the past. However, these stories have been all unverified and will disappear.  They are probably distorted stories written by “some journalists (who are inadvertently the British puppets)” hostile to Israel. In the Lebanese presidential election, the Hezbollah-affiliated candidates withdrew their candidacy. Iran seems to be working to help stabilize Lebanon’s political world after the destruction of Hezbollah.（Hezbollah candidate expected to withdraw from Lebanon’s presidential elections – report）and（Mainstream Media Ignoring Ethno-Religious Genocide Under Syria’s New Rulers）
13. Israel and Iran are openly at odds, but they are secretly cooperating on the management of the Middle East. It is the same as how China and India are openly at odds, but they are also cooperating on the management of BRICS. In the de-Americanized international society in the future, this kind of “the secretly good relationship” will be cultivated here and there. This is in contrast to the international society under the hegemony of the United Kingdom and the United States, which had been full of “the secretly bad relationships“, such as (i) “the British-American domination in the name of cooperation”, (ii) “the Puppetization in the name of freedom,” and (iii) “the two-party dictatorship and the bureaucratic dictatorship in the name of democracy.”（Western Europe risks losing everything. Here’s why）
14. As the international conflict that will be resolved (or staged) with Trump’s return to power, the biggest one along with the Gaza Ceasefire could be a meeting between Trump and Putin. On 7 January 2025, the Trump camp said, “We have no plans to meet him.” On 13 January 2025, however, the same camp said, “We will have a phone call with him. The date is undecided.”（No answer from JD Vance if Trump plans to have phone call with Putin） （Trump expected to have call with Putin soon – Waltz）and [Trump says he will meet ‘very quickly’ with Putin]
15. If Trump and Putin hold the US-Russia Summit, will the Ukraine War end soon? And will the US bring Europe into the dramatic reconciliation with Russia, then? It seems like that on the surface. However, these things could probably not happen.  Why not? Because, on one hand, the Summit could surely reduce the conflict between the US and Russia; on the other hand, it is also sure that the EU, NATO, the UK, Germany, and France will continue to view Russia as their enemy.  Even if AfD wins in the German General Election to be held in February 2025, and even if this victory of AfD will cause Germany to begin to shift from anti-Russia to pro-Russia, the EU and the NATO Secretariat will still and firmly continue to consider Russia as their enemy.（Nord Stream pipeline to be relaunched – German chancellor candidate）and（NATO boss warns members to start learning Russian）
16. In his election pledge, Trump said, “I will put a ceasefire in Ukraine as soon as I take office.” In reality, however, even if he meets with Putin, there will surely be no talk of the ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump will let Ukraine continue the War. The Biden administration has been pressuring Zelensky to lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 in Ukraine, where the shortage of the troops is getting worse. In addition, an aide of Trump has stated that the Trump administration will also provide Zelensky with the same pressure.（Mike Waltz: Trump Administration Will Ask Ukraine To Lower Conscription Age）
17. Putin wants the Ukraine War to continue at the low flame. That would be better for Russia, because (a) Europe would suffer more from the energy shortage, (b) the European economy would become self-destructed, (c) the rule of the European elites would collapse, (d) the center of the world would shift from Europe and the US to the non-US side, and (e) the world would become multipolar, while Russia would continue to dominate the world. Trump is a hidden multipolarist whose goal is to destroy the Anglo-American Hegemony and the (liberal) elite rule. Putin has the same goal. The two, Trump and Putin, are the de facto comrades. Therefore, even if they meet, the Ukraine War will not end, and the United States will not bring Europe (EU and NATO) to reconcile with Russia. Doing that would prolong the life of the Anglo-American Hegemony. Trump will continue to let the Ukraine War destroy Europe. By doing as such, he will give Russia the upper hand.
18. The US Intelligence Community that has driven the Anglo-American Hegemony has been infiltrated by the hidden multipolar faction. Currently, NATO, the EU, the Western media and the elites under its umbrella are saying, “We will never forgive Russia. We will make Ukraine fight until we win.” However, the longer this hysteria of their hostility towards Russia continues, the more the US-UK Hegemony, NATO, and the EU will become self-destructed, and the world will become more non-American and multipolar. Both Trump and Putin want to continue this trend. In fact, Trump has demanded that the European countries “increase defense spending to 5% of GDP  (by cutting their social welfare budgets) if they want to remain as the members of NATO.”  As such, he is inciting anti-American sentiment among Europeans.（NATO members should increase defense spending – Trump）
19. Elon Musk, a close aide to Trump, has also been picking fights with the European elites, interfering in the election in Germany to praise AfD, and continuing his public speaking activities to criticize and try to overthrow the liberal Labour Party government in the UK. The Trump administration is not aiming for the US-Russia reconciliation to restore the US Hegemony, but rather the opposite, splitting Europe and the US and making the US an “American State” (i.e. the Isolationist). The uproar over the annexation of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal (which could be considered as Trump’s policy observation balloons) is also a part of that strategy.（Elon Musk reportedly plotting to oust British Prime Minister Keir Starmer） （Labour MPs call for Britain-wide probe into rape gangs）and [Elon Musk urges Germans to vote for AfD in latest involvement in European politics]
20. Trump, who has already been the US President for four years, can only be the President for another four years according to the US Constitution. He will lay the foundations of his policies in the first two years and solidify them in the remaining two years. Since he has only a little time, he is now rushing to implement various strategies even before taking office.（Donald Trump expected to press Netanyahu for concessions on Saudi peace, expert says）
21. The multilateral faction of the US Intelligence Community gave Trump the landslide victory in the 2024 Election to create the political environment in which he could do his best. They forced Biden to withdraw his candidacy and made the even more incompetent Harris the Democratic Presidential Candidate, preventing him from committing any possible election fraud, causing him to suffer a crushing defeat and allowing the Republicans to take both Houses of the US Congress. The US Democratic Party, the liberals, and the British factions of the Intelligence Community have been dramatically weakened by now. The Trump camp appointed the strong-willed Tulsi Gabbard as Director of the US Intelligence Community and is working to crush the British in the Intelligence Community. The world will change when Trump returns to power. However, the direction of this change is very different from what appears on the surface.（Tulsi Gabbard vs. the War Party）and [How will Trump’s return to the White House change the face of global health?]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader. In addition, the numbers, such as (i), (ii), (iii) or (a), (b), (c), and bold and/or italic letters were also used in the translation by the translator for the same reason.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese:  トランプ返り咲きで世界が変わる、という演出

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 20 Jan 2025.

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