The Ukraine Ceasefire and Then, What?

IN FOCUS, 17 Mar 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

13 March 2025 –— Trump’s United States negotiated with Zelensky’s Ukraine to come up with a 30-day ceasefire plan. Trump engineered a fight at the end of February when he visited the US with Zelensky, and stopped the supply of military intelligence (GPS, etc.) and weapons from the US to Ukraine, rendering the Ukrainian (and the British and European) forces behind him unable to fight, and made Ukraine accept the ceasefire at the behest of the US. （ゼレンスキーを騙し討ち）（What a 30-day ceasefire means for the war）

2. Zelensky initially tried to get a promise from the US to protect him in return for the ceasefire, but after being forced into a fight with Trump at the end of February, he was put in the weak position and could only do his best to get the military support from the US restored. Trump promised to resume military support for Ukraine, but since the 30-day ceasefire will begin soon, no military support will be provided during that time. It is unclear what will happen after that. （米欧同盟を機能停止したトランプ）
3. It has been reported that Putin’s Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal and kill the talks. My prediction is that Putin will support the ceasefire proposal because it looks like Putin is trying to drive the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk. （Ukrainian forces encircled in Kursk Region） [Vladimir Putin sets out conditions for Ukraine ceasefire]

Source of the map of Kursk above: https://e3.365dm.com/24/08/1600×900/skynews-ukraine-russia_6650879.png?20240808131139

4. In order to achieve the ceasefire, the Ukrainian military’s occupation of Kursk Oblast along the Russian border needs to end. Ukraine, which is losing, wants a ceasefire even if it accepts that Russia is occupying its own territory, such as Donbas. In contrast, Russia, which is winning, will not ceasefire if Kursk, which is its territory, remains occupied by Ukraine. The occupation of Kursk, which began last August, existed to prevent the US and Europe from realizing a ceasefire in Ukraine even if they wanted one. Putin. It was convenient for him to continue the war because non-US countries would unite on Russia’s side and the world would become non-US and multipolar. Zelensky’s power base was the continuation of the War. The occupation of Kursk has been prolonged due to the mutual interests of both sides. （ウクライナ戦争の永続）
5. Now that the United States and Ukraine have agreed to the ceasefire, the Russian military is accelerating its efforts to drive the Ukrainian military out of Kursk. The Russian military has recaptured 85% of the occupied area (an increase of about 20% in two weeks). The largest city, Sudzha, was also recaptured on 12 March 2025. The Ukrainian military is in a worsening predicament. As their dominance increases, Putin visited Kursk, which has become a battlefield, for the first time and encouraged the soldiers. From these movements, it seems that there may be a way to drive the Ukrainian military out of Kursk within 1-2 weeks. Once the occupation of Kursk is over, Russia will be in a position to ceasefire.（Putin visits Russia’s Kursk Region for first time since Ukraine’s incursion）
6. After Trump took office, a schedule was circulating that a ceasefire would be reached by 20 April 2025 (the 100th day since Trump took office), when Christians in the U.S. and Russia celebrate Easter, and a peace agreement would be concluded on 9 May, Russia’s Victory Day (against the Nazis). Trump may have decided on this date himself, but it is a date that would please the Russian side, such as Russia’s Easter and Victory Day (the day of the victory over the Ukrainian neo-Nazis is the same as Victory Day against the Nazis). It seems that Trump had many phone conversations with Putin shortly after taking office, so it is possible that Putin also approved of this schedule. （ウクライナ停戦に乗り出すトランプ）[Far-right politics in Ukraine] [Trump Aims a Ceasefire in Ukraine For Easter Day on April 20]
7. If Putin agrees to a 30-day ceasefire around 25 March 2025, a week from now, the end date will be exactly on Easter, 20 April 2025. Or, after a month of fuss, the ceasefire could begin on 20 April 2025. If all goes well, the peace agreement can be reached on the Victory Day, “9 May” 2025. （Trump Opts For More War With Russia） [Trump and Putin seek ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia by Easter or May 9]
8. The schedule is good, but wouldn’t Putin and Trump, who want to make the world multipolar, prefer that Ukraine not ceasefire? Wouldn’t it be okay to have a complete ceasefire and peace in Ukraine? In Europe, the UK, France, Germany, and the EU have decided to issue a large amount of deficit bonds and accelerate military strengthening, assuming the Ukrainian war (ceasefire monitoring) and hostility toward Russia will continue. The head of Germany’s intelligence agency has stated that it will take at least five years to strengthen the military, so the Ukrainian war must continue until 2030, and has been criticized by pro-Russian Ukraine. （Ex-Ukrainian PM outraged by German intel chief’s warning）
9. (a) If the Ukraine War ends easily and the permanent peace is established, the strategy of the belligerent and anti-Russian elites and leftists of the UK, France, Germany, and the EU will fail. Then, (b) the voters who think that peace is better will tend to dislike the elites and left-wing parties.    (c) They will vote for the right-wing parties such as the AfD.    And then, (d) the rule of the European elite will collapse.   The collapse of the rule of the European elite is what Elon Musk, Vice President Vance and the Trump administration want, so that may be another purpose of the Ukrainian peace process.   However, it is also possible that the elite-controlled European forces (and the remnants of the British-affiliated US Intelligence Community) will succeed in scheming to destroy the ceasefire in Ukraine, and the ceasefire that Putin and Trump (only on the surface) want will be destroyed. （‘Ukraine Will Not Recognize Any Territory Occupied By Russia’: Zelensky）[German elections: Why far-right AfD is popular in once-communist East Germany]
10. If Ukraine ceases to fire, Zelensky will have to resign (by losing the election). He is so corrupt that if he resigns, he will be arrested. If the European forces destroy the ceasefire, Zelensky will secretly cooperate. If the European forces and Zelensky try to destroy the ceasefire, while Trump and Putin pretend not to notice, the ceasefire will be destroyed and we will return to war, but the US will blame Europe and not participate, and Europe will be the only ones fighting Russia. Non-US countries will side with Russia and the world will turn into a multipolar world. Ukraine will become a self-destructive war for Europe and the US, like the Vietnam War and the Iraq War. Will the ceasefire in Ukraine be realized, and will the European forces recognize or destroy it? This issue will become clarified from now on. （Will Putin Agree To A Ceasefire?）（‘A ceasefire only benefits those who are retreating’: Russia’s top foreign relations experts and actors react to US-Ukraine talks）

11,     The scenario, in which the US and Russia make the ceasefire and peace in Ukraine, then let Europe destroy it, is convenient for both Trump and Putin. It can be said that Trump fulfilled his campaign promise of the ceasefire in Ukraine, but was destroyed by Europe. Trump is now furious at Europe and Ukraine for destroying the ceasefire, and will once again stop the military cooperation for Ukraine, will no longer deal with NATO, and will impose high tariffs on the European exports and cut the economic ties. The US will be freed from its restraints by forcing the British in Europe, which has dominated the US-UK hegemony, to self-destruct, and will work well with Russia and China to promote multipolarity. （China, Russia, Iran To Hold Nuclear Talks In Beijing After Tehran Snubbed Trump Offer）    [A Tale of Two Hegemons: The Anglo-American Roots of the Postwar International System]    [THE THREAT OF AN ANGLO-AMERICAN HEGEMON]

12. Until now, the US has been possessed by the “military-industrial complex.” Elon Musk’s DOGE is destroying the military-industrial complex’s opaque government spending system. The military-industrial complex is dissatisfied with Trump. The Middle East, including Israel, has been a military unit, but if the Middle East’s problems are resolved in Israel’s favor with the cooperation of Trump and Putin, the military industry will no longer be able to make profits in the Middle East. In response to the military industry’s dissatisfaction, Trump can tell them, “From now on, Europe will expand its military rapidly and continue to fight with Russia. Go to Europe!“ Then, the military industry will obsess Europe, eat up the finances of high-welfare societies, waste them, and destroy themselves. If Europe unites and fights seriously, it will be stronger than Russia. However, Europe will continue to lose in vain, as it will inherit the immature way of fighting led by the United States in Ukraine. （Ukraine ‘Losing Its Trump Card’ As Key Kursk Town Liberated By Russian Troops）[Hey Elon: We Found a Place to Cut More Than $2 Trillion in Wasteful Spending]    [The Coming DOGE Trap for Democrats: Military Cuts]    [Elon Musk’s DOGE Initiative: A Game-Changer for the Defense Industry?]
13. The Biden administration has prolonged the Ukraine War, which was convenient for Putin. However, Trump was elected on a promise to ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin was initially wary of Trump. (Last summer, Putin provoked the Ukrainian army to invade Kursk in case Trump was serious about the ceasefire.) However, Putin began to praise Trump highly after he took office in January this year. This is probably because he realized that Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire would not result in the ceasefire. Recently, people around Putin have expressed the view that “Trump should not be trusted.”  Trump and Putin will continue to get along behind the scenes and solve various problems in the world, including the Middle East, but on the surface, they will also maintain the structure that “the United States, Europe, and Ukraine are fighting Russia. The United States is Russia’s enemy.” This will allow the common enemy, the British (Europe and Britain), to self-destruct. （Sergey Karaganov: Russia must not fall into Trump’s ‘honey trap’）  [Biden Works to Prolong Ukraine War]    [It Seems Biden Is Prolonging The Ukraine War … Why]    [(2019) Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options | RAND]    [Why Russia’s economy is booming despite the war and Western sanctions]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader. In addition, the numbers, such as (i), (ii), (iii) or (a), (b), (c), and bold and/or italic letters were also used in the translation by the translator for the same reason.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese:  ウクライナ停戦とその後

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 17 Mar 2025.

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