The US-Russian Strategy for the Ukraine Ceasefire

IN FOCUS, 24 Mar 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

19 March 2025 — The US and Russian Presidents Trump and Putin held a telephone summit on 18 March 2025, and agreed to a 30-day ceasefire in which Russia and Ukraine would not attack each other’s energy-related (and other infrastructure) facilities, as well as a prisoner exchange (this could also be interpreted as meaning that infrastructure facilities other than energy are also subject to the ceasefire). It is said that the first ceasefire since the start of the Ukraine War has begun, but the ceasefire is partial and will not significantly change the military situation. (It will change the political situation.)  （Trump, Putin agree on ‘energy and infrastructure ceasefire’）  [Russia’s Putin and Trump Reach Limited Ceasefire Deal on Ukraine – YouTube]     [LIVE | ‘Ukraine War is OVER’ – Jeffrey Sachs Stuns EU Parliament, Challenges US-Led Order!]     [End the War in Ukraine, US/NATO Out of Eastern Europe]     [Bottom line: peace or war in Ukraine?]

2. Military attacks on non-infrastructure facilities such as mutual military bases will continue in the future. The Russian military has already destroyed a significant portion (perhaps most of all?) of the power grids in Ukraine, so the ceasefire is not very effective in this regard. The current ceasefire seems to be centered on preventing the Ukrainian side from attacking facilities on the Russian mainland with drones and missiles. It is said that Putin accepted the ceasefire proposal because it is advantageous for Russia. （The Putin-Trump call was a resounding success – whatever was said） [Zelensky Has a Real Chance to End the War, if He Can Accept These Harsh Realities]     [Ukraine is ‘ready to implement’ a partial ceasefire plan with Russia, Zelenskyy says]
3. The Ukrainian military has exhausted and its combat capabilities have been greatly reduced. Europe (UK, France, EU = British-affiliated), which is stubbornly hostile to Russia, has not changed its stance of forcing Ukraine into a war until it destroys Russia. Europe wants to rebuild the Ukrainian military during the ceasefire. However, Trump’s US side will not allow the Ukrainian military to be bolstered during the ceasefire. （NATO ‘peacekeepers’ in Ukraine mean war – Medvedev） [Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia]     [Hungary FM Péter Szijjártó BLASTS EU of Sinking Peace with Pro-War Ukraine Stance]    [EU Pledges To Continue Arming Ukraine Amid Cease-Fire Talks]
4. The Ukrainian military’s most elite troops have been working to occupy Kursk across the Russian border since last year. However, since late February, the Russian counterattack has accelerated in Kursk, and the Ukrainian military is surrounded by the Russian forces and cannot escape. Trump asked Putin to allow the Ukrainian military to abandon their weapons and surrender, and Russia will treat them without harm and return them to Ukraine. （Putin Issues US List Of Demands To Achieve 30-Day Ceasefire） [Kursk showdown: Russian troops destroy cities to reclaim land]
5. However, the Ukrainian government denies that its troops are surrounded in Kursk and cannot escape, calling it the “Russian fake news.” Behind this lies the European/British faction, who do not want Ukraine to admit the defeat. The British-European Ukrainians (and the media authorities = the British faction) are in the self-destructive delusional state, stubbornly denying the real current situation in the Ukraine War. However, their denial will not change the reality of the War. During the ceasefire period, the Ukrainian military will have no choice but to prioritize the surrender and survival of its most elite troops, and there is no time to rebuild the military. （Kiev rejects Putin’s offer of mercy for troops in Kursk）   [Ukraine’s army escapes from Kursk by the skin of its teeth]
6. The main battlefield of the Ukraine War is the border between the “Donbas region, which has changed from the Ukrainian territory to the Russian territory”, AND the “main Ukrainian territory”. The war front-line is at a stalemate. Russia has not expanded its occupation beyond the areas with the large Russian population, such as Donbas. The Ukrainian military is weak and cannot launch the counterattack into Donbas. That is why the stalemate has continued.   [Donbas Region, Ukraine]
7. Because of the stalemate, the Ukrainian military pulled out its elite troops from the main battlefield last summer, gathered its elite troops, and crossed the border to occupy Kursk, creating a situation in which Russia would refuse peace as long as the occupation of Kursk continued. (However, Putin also secretly welcomed this.) The Ukrainian military outside of Kursk has no fighting capability from the beginning. It is foreseeable that the elite troops will surrender to Russia in Kursk and be rendered powerless. The Ukrainian military no longer has any troops that can fight effectively. Those people on the British side (i.e. those people who are under the influence of the British Intelligence Community, including the Western people and Japanese) and those authorities (the “so-called experts”, “the experts”, lol) believe that Ukraine has been fighting on equal terms with Russia and that they see this “ceasefire” as an extension of that delusion. Unfortunately, however, the reality is different. （EU leaders ‘trembling’ over Putin-Trump call） [Why is Britain so strongly behind Ukraine? Does it matter?]     [British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 14 March 2025]    [U.K.’s Starmer convenes ‘coalition of the willing’ meeting to discuss Ukraine]    [British Intelligence active in Ukraine with special operations]
8. Until recently, the UK and France stated that they would send their elite special forces to Ukraine to “monitor the ceasefire.” They intended to train and rebuild the Ukrainian military under the pretense of monitoring the ceasefire. Putin had warned that if the UK and France sent troops, it would be considered the declaration of war against Russia. A few days ago, I speculated that Trump was trying to drive the military-industrial complex out of the US with the DOGE audit and to bring it back to Europe (including those organizations relating to George Soros). Based on that speculation, I was going to write an article about it. However, the possibility of this significantly decreased within a few days (scoffing pile). （Scoffing Over Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Won’t Last. Here’s Why） [British Army ‘absolutely ready’ if ordered to deploy to Ukraine]
9. However, the UK and France have not announced anything about sending troops since then. If the UK and France send their troops to Ukraine, the UK and France (NATO) forces will have to invade Kursk, which is a part of the Russian territories, and will have to fight the Russian troops.  This is because the UK-French troops have to rescue the elite Ukrainian troops surrounded by the Russian troops in Kursk, not to train the Ukrainian troops.  Trump’s US is strongly opposed to the dispatch of the UK-French troops to Kursk, and will cut off all the military support to the UK-French troops. Furthermore, the UK and France have no justification to invade Russia (Kursk), and therefore, they cannot get the approval, support, or the GPS guidance of the US. They are bound to lose both politically and militarily. As such, the UK and France will no longer send troops to Ukraine. They will not be able to provide any military support other than sending troops during the ceasefire period (and probably even after that). （EU countries react to Trump-Putin call）  [Macron says French-British blueprint doesn’t foresee deploying a ‘mass’ of soldiers in Ukraine]
10. After the one-month ceasefire, the Ukrainian military may not be able to resume the fighting. It could become obvious that Ukraine is no longer able to fight Russia. Since the start of the War, the Ukrainian political world has been dominated by Zelensky. However, that may change in the next month. Those Ukrainian politicians who are pro-Russian than Zelensky, such as Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, have recently been meeting with the Trump camp. Zelensky will also try to stay at Trump’s mercy in the attempt to extend his political life. “At Trump’s mercy” means “at Putin’s mercy.”  Meanwhile, the UK, France, and the EU could be the ones most likely to be left out of the running in the future. （Ex-Ukrainian PM outraged by German intel chief’s warning）
11. Trump is considering recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. In fact, most of the residents of Crimea are Russian. In addition, it has historically been part of Russia and has one of the most important military ports, but it was transferred to Ukraine due to Khrushchev’s mischief. Trump also plans to lift the US sanctions against Russia resulting from Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and to request the UN (and those countries that are out of the umbrella of the US) to recognize Crimea as a part of the Russian territories. The Ukrainian government is strongly opposed to that, but it cannot stop following Trump. （Trump Would Lead The World By Example If He Recognized Crimea As Russian）  [Opinion – Sadly, Trump is right on Ukraine]
12. If that is realized, the non-US side, which has been hesitant to recognize Crimea (and Donbas) as the Russian territories due to concerns about the US, could be freed and start moving to change the status quo all at once. If the momentum is gained, not only Crimea and Donbas, but also Abkhazia and South Ossetia may officially become the Russian territories. Those who are the Russian patriots may joyfully appreciate Trump (while publicly saying that Trump cannot be trusted). The ongoing change of the world-order to become a multipolar world-order sounds good. Unfortunately, those British puppets [who are under the influence of the British Hegemony] are unaware of that. （Putin and Trump usher in an era of new diplomacy） [Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation] [War in Donbas]    [If Ukraine loses war, it will be ‘end of Western hegemony’, warns UK’s Boris Johnson]
13. It is fundamentally wrong to assume that Russia must be treated as the enemy [of Ukraine and the West]. Russia is not bad. Russia just went to help the Russian residents in Ukraine because they were being killed. The ones at fault are (a) those people on the British side, who made Zelensky [a British/Western puppet] and (b) his forces which killed the Russian residents in Ukraine.  And yet, the British puppets (such as those liberals in the West and Japan) are unaware of this whole picture, and continue to slander and attack those who point it out, and to believe in their delusions (even though those left-wing liberals were originally pro-Soviet. They say that the pro-Soviet and anti-American sentiment was also planted by the British to maintain the Cold War). （The West lives in a simulation while Russia is shaping the real world）  [United Kingdom and the Russian invasion of Ukraine]     [Europe’s diminishing hegemony in the Ukrainian conflict]
14. Trump’s recent actions have accelerated the self-destruction of the British [i.e. those who are under the influence of the British Hegemony, including the Western Europeans and Japanese]. The British puppets are also suffering mentally every day.   Regardless of their suffering, they do not realize their delusions. They don’t realize that the so-called global warming is man-made politically.  They do not realize that the Covid 19 vaccine is a scam.  They still believe the Western major media. Stop it. Or is it useless to advise them anything?  Stupid. （Lithuania Says Russian Intelligence Behind IKEA Arson Attack）   [Starmer says Europe is at ‘crossroads in history’ as leaders agree to steps to Ukraine peace]     [Perspective: The endgame in Ukraine is coming into view]
15. The three Baltic states and Poland decided to withdraw from the Landmine Ban Treaty because these countries are focusing on landmines as a weapon that they can prepare themselves cheaply, in order to continue hostile to Russia without the United States, even after the termination of Trump’s support to Europe. It is not the Treaty that should be withdrawn, but the unrealistic idea (instilled in them by British people) that Russia must be viewed as their enemy. Unfortunately, however, their hostile view as such has not been examined at all. （European NATO members could lift ban on landmines）   [Front-line NATO allies say landmines are now fair game in a new warning to Russia]     [Caring for landmine victims]    [Anti-Personnel Landmines Convention – UNODA]    [The threat of landmine contamination in Ukraine – YouTube]
16. Last September, I wrote an article, entitled, “Russia’s False Accusation.” The Biden’s administration of the US was investigating Russia over that false accusation. (the ICC’s accusation that Putin abducted Ukrainian children) However, the Trump administration recently dropped the investigation because it was highly likely to be a false accusation.   （ロシアの冤罪） （US shuts down probe into alleged Russian ‘kidnapping’ of Ukrainian children）   [The Fake ‘Kidnapping’ Probe: How the West Covered for Ukraine’s Child Trafficking Networks]      [Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova | International Criminal Court]     [US ‘deletes evidence’ of Russia’s kidnap of thousands of Ukrainian children]
17. It is gradually becoming clear nowadays that the Bucha Massacre was a story fabricated by the Ukrainian government. Nonetheless, the Western and Japanese media authorities, liberals, and their journalists have no interest in finding out the truth about these cases that they were too credulous about (or helped fabricate). (Russia falsely accused of massacring civilians)    （Putin’s Full Speech: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions）   [Fresh round of fake videos claim the Bucha massacre was staged – Ukraine Fact Check]    [Bucha massacre: Satellite evidence and timeline]
18. Putin’s hypocritical strategy was (1) to intentionally ignore these false accusations, intensify the conflict between the US and non-US sides, and (2) to promote (2-i) the multipolarization of the world order and (2-ii) the self-destruction of British Hegemony. The fact that the truth has not been uncovered means further success for Putin’s strategy. From the beginning (when the Ukraine War began), the more those who were under the umbrella of the British Hegemony viewed Putin as their enemy, the more likely it was that Putin would ultimately win and that those under the British Hegemony would perish. The hidden multipolar faction (Rockefeller, etc.) who created this structure are incredible. They are incredible in many ways, including how they got the US Democratic Party to rig the election, making Trump wait four years, during which time they started the war in Ukraine, allowing Russia to win, and then allowed Trump to return to power, and how they allowed Israel to gain the hegemony in the Middle East, in exchange for having them teach Trump which US intelligence agencies to target to destroy the people of the British Hegemony. (Humanity has been taken in by Putin’s deceptive strategy)

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Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader. In addition, the numbers, such as (i), (ii), (iii) or (a), (b), (c), and bold and/or italic letters were also used in the translation by the translator for the same reason.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese:  米露ウクライナ停戦の策略

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 24 Mar 2025.

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