A SHIELD THAT BRINGS DANGER

COMMENTARY ARCHIVES, 7 Jan 2009

Mark Seddon

In these times of tension, Russia’s neighbours’ fears are far from alleviated by US missile defence plans.

As Russia flexes its muscles, cutting gas supplies to Ukraine in a dispute that is as much about unpaid bills as it is about settling political scores, a small, disused Warsaw Pact airfield in a remote corner of north-west Poland finds itself at the heart of a new conflict between the US and Russia.

Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and Poland a Soviet satellite state, but with the fall of communism both have moved into the western camp – and Redzikowo base was selected by the Bush administration to host the "missile defence shield", a system designed to intercept incoming rockets from rogue states such as Iran. The US ambassador to Poland recently visited the nearby town of Slupsk to see the mayor. Russia sees this as yet another provocation and, in an echo of the Cuban missile crisis, says it is being targeted by the proposed shield and will respond accordingly.

Recently Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, rained on Barack Obama’s parade, promising like for like: Russia would move its own missiles to the Kaliningrad enclave, on the Polish border. Russia’s ambassador in Warsaw, Vladimir Grinin, struck an even tougher line. "Of course our relations with Poland are important," said Grinin. "We hope that Obama will listen to our concerns, and not go ahead. But in the worse-case scenario, if the Americans do proceed, we will also target the new radar systems in the Czech Republic, and will place missiles on ships in the Baltic and around Kaliningrad."

Bronislaw Nowak is a former Warsaw Pact fighter pilot who was stationed at Redzikowo. I met him just outside the base on a bitterly cold day, a rusting MiG fighter standing as sentinel at the entrance. Now a local councillor in Slupsk, Nowak isn’t enthusiastic. "It makes us a target. It starts a new arms race. Did you know that it would take all of two minutes for a Russian missile launched from Kaliningrad to land here?"

Nowak, like most Poles, does not hanker for the old days and yet wants to avoid antagonising Russia. Poland was one of the first to shake off the Soviet yoke, is an enthusiastic member of the EU and Nato, and has spent the last decade removing any visible traces of its Communist past. If the Americans move into the nearby base, there will be 100 or so service personnel with their families spending money locally.

This would surely boost the region’s economy, I said to Ryszard Kwiatkowski, Slupsk’s deputy mayor. But he wasn’t having it either. "It will make us a target, and we have seen enough of conflict in the past to know that we do not want to become the centre of another. Of course we like the Americans, but them coming here will make little difference to our economy." The attitude among local shoppers was equally negative.

Back in Warsaw, I met Poland’s anglophile foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski. He was upbeat about the missile shield, and anxious to dispel Russian fears. "What you have to understand is that this is purely defensive in nature. The system will only react if we, Nato, are threatened. Should we be fearful of Russia’s response? Well, we have always lived in the shadow of Russia."

Fearful of Russia or not, what Sikorski, the Russian ambassador and Slupsk’s local leadership had in common was a belief that the decision on the stationing of the missile defence shield would be taken in Washington. Obama has bought some breathing space by saying that the US needs more time to see if the system can work properly. He might also find time to listen to ordinary Poles, who fear that they will become a target. "We wanted a referendum, but we couldn’t have one," says Bronislaw Nowak. "So we organised our own – 69% of our townspeople said no."

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