How Should the Elections in Burma Be Understood?
TRANSCEND MEMBERS, 2 Apr 2012
Dr. Zarni – TRANSCEND Media Service
My Own “Expertly” Speculations
1. Do Sunday’s elections in Burma matter?
Yes and No. In terms of who controls the real levers of power absolutely nothing will change. The ruling generals and ex-generals have the overwhelming majority of seats – more than 75% of a total of 660 seats in all chambers. Aung San Suu Kyi-led opposition NLD is contesting for the 40-plus seats, which is less than 8% of the parliamentary seats in the entire parliamentary system.
What may be significant is that the electorate is being excited about having a formal political process where there can openly debate the regime’s failed policies, talk about the dismal state of the affairs, openly express their support for Aung San Suu Kyi and what she and dissident colleagues stand for, and shed their fear of the regime. In this latter sense, the bi-elections may be bringing about a political cultural shift among the populace.
In short, in terms of power politics and regime’s domestic policies there is no difference, elections or no elections.
It’s the same old generals and ex-generals with the same old attitude and the same old self-, institutional and commercial interests. But social psychologically, the public has broken free itself of the paranoia which the dictatorship of 50 years had successfully instilled in the public psyche.
2. Do you believe the current “wind of change” is for real, or if it’s nothing more than an aesthetic illusion?
The current change process in Burma is neither as fundamental or significant as glass-is-half-full optimists are making it out to be, nor is it simply aesthetic illusion as a small number of nay-sayers believe. Some aspects of change in Burma are real and inevitable; for instance, the public no longer believes that the regime is invincible, indivisible or permanent.
3. What are the real motives behind Thein Sein’s reforms? Do you think he’s sincere?
Whether or not Thein Sein is “sincere” is less important than what his power base is and how much of the military’s support he enjoys as he attempts to run a more transparent and quasi-representative regime.
The motives behind the reforms are complex and multiple. One factor is the collective fear in the ruling clique about ending up like Colonel Gaddafi, Ben Ali, and Mubarak in the face of popular unrests and/or foreign military intervention. The other is semi-Enlightenment among the new generation of generals who realize 50-years of military rule has devastated the country in every single aspect of nation-building, hence wanting to do things differently now. The third factor is their need and desire to seduce the West into normalizing and accepting their indirect, but constitutionalized military rule.
4. Is there a risk for Aung San Suu Kyi to become a tool for the current regime to gain more international legitimacy? If she gets elected, will she really have her say in the government’s decisions?
Aung San Suu Kyi is in a strategic symbiosis with some of the generals and ex-generals. They need her and she needs them to break the 25 years of political stalemate. She holds the key for the regime’s need for its international acceptance and normalization.
5. Do you think the western countries are having the right attitude toward Myanmar?
Western governments – as opposed to the citizens in the West – are typically hypocritical, opportunistic and schizophrenic in the way they promote human rights and democracy. The West isn’t simply a liberal, positive force in the world. It supports democratization when doing so also promotes its interests while adopting policy indifference in places where democratization will hurt its diverse interests.
6. Are you optimistic about the future of Myanmar? Why?
I am not really optimistic about the future of Myanmar because there are no real signs of an unfolding reconciliation process between the military and the society, nor is the regime pursuing any lasting resolution to end the simmering wars of 6 decades in the ethnic minority regions. Ethnic and national reconciliation is just as important as democratizing the political system. Economically, the wealth is concentrated in a tiny minority of generals, ex-generals and their cronies while the public goes belly up. You can’t call the process “democratic” or “progress” where power and wealth are concentrated in a tiny number of generals, ex-generals, and cronies while the public gets wildly excited about the iconic Aung San Suu Kyi.
The country is consistently ranked in the bottom of just about every dimension in nation-building – corruption (next to Somalia), instability (civil war is raging on still after 60-plus years since independence), absence of rule of law, pervasive poverty, other so-called Millennium Development Goals , business risks, etc. Most of the country’s youth are poorly or little-educated. The bulk of the country’s work force is little-skilled or un-skilled. Higher education is in a shambles, and pre-college schooling exists only in name (unless you pay exorbitant fees in private schools). Even international schools in Burma are nothing more than “Golden Cages” for spoiled local children, as several alumni put it, based on their first-hand knowledge of the private schools in Burma.
Health care system has in effect collapsed. The generals have no desire or plan to leave power, and the military as a pool of leaders and an institution, are a proven, resounding failure as measured in terms of their institutional, intellectual and leadership capacities. Last but not least, to the powerful external interests, Burma is nothing but a “brothel of natural resources” and a strategic route through which to pursue their divergent interests.
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Dr. Maung Zarni is member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace, Development and Environment, founder and director of the Free Burma Coalition (1995-2004), and a visiting fellow (2011-13) at the Civil Society and Human Security Research Unit, Department of International Development, London School of Economics. His forthcoming book on Burma will be published by Yale University Press.
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 2 Apr 2012.
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