WHAT DEATH OF BAITULLAH MEHSUD MEANS FOR TERRORISM
COMMENTARY ARCHIVES, 28 Aug 2009
The death of Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on 5 August 2009 in the southern Waziristan has brought to the fore significant achievements of anti-terror operations in Pakistan. The incident brings respite to the victims of the Taliban though it would be premature to say the death has ended Taliban in the region. As the successor bid to the Mehsud has taken violent shape with intra-group clashes, complete decimation of the Taliban ranks in Pakistan is far from sight particularly when they have, besides deep roots in the region, a strong nexus with Al Qaeda.
For Pakistan the killing of Mehsud may show its increasing assertion against the Taliban. In fact it is under an implicit understanding, though Pakistan government never acknowledges it officially, the US drones from time to time have targeted the radical elements in Pak territory. On the eventful day of 5th August, reportedly Mehsud had gone to his father-in-law’s house in Zangara village in South Waziristan to see his wife. Mehsud and his wife along with 40 militants got killed when missile fired from a drone hit the house.
Mehsud emerged as a formidable force in the late 2000s. With a $5 million tag on his head he played a significant role to bring cohesion to the disparate militant groups in Waziristan. In December 2007 he formed and led the TTP by bringing together about five militant groups, inspired by the Taliban ideology. Mehsud in his 30s emerged as the supreme leader within a very short span of time. He led a group of about 5000 radical fighters, a force to be reckoned with in the region. Reportedly Mehsud wanted close links with the Pak army and tried to strike a deal with it by sending his envoys like Shah Abdul Aziz, a former member of Pakistan parliament.
Though he might have some connections with the army the fact remains that the civil society of Pakistan were against the Taliban forces, hence they had to bear the brunt of Mehsud. It was Mehsud who formed the suicide squad to target leaders and activists who opposed Taliban activities. Benazir Bhutto was killed by the TTP in December 2007 while she was in the midst of an electoral campaign. Similarly, the attack on the Marriott hotel in Islamabad in January 2009 was allegedly carried out by the TTP cadres.
Mehsud suddenly rose into prominence with his terrorist activities and patronage. He appointed deputies in various regions to carry out the Taliban ideology. His deputy in the Swat, Maulana Fazlullah, also called Radio Mullah played a major role in the Tabilanisation of the region by enforcing orthodox rules and regulations. The Pakistan government had conceded under the Swat Deal the promulgation of Sharia in Swat. The Buner district about 67 miles from Islamabad was captured by the Taliban in April 2009. Millions of people fled Swat, Buner and other surrounding regions to become internally displaced. With the raging apprehensions that Islamabad would ultimately fall under the control of TTP, the Pak army was finally forced to act against the Taliban. The Pak army could successfully repel the Taliban from Swat in July after a 10-week offensive that killed more than 1,700 Taliban fighters.
The TTP too played a dominant role to checkmate the NATO forces and their transports through Pakistan to Afghanistan. Mehsud supported the Taliban fighters in southwestern Afghanistan to fight the NATO forces. The radicals attacked the transport vehicles from Pakistan to Afghanistan on hilly and mountainous routes including on the Khyber Pass.
The significance of the killing transcends beyond the territory of Pakistan. For India, Pak based Taliban has been a source of threat since its emergence. The Taliban pushed from Buner and Swat and other regions has reportedly shifted their bases to Pakistan controlled Kashmir. Mehsud had promised to support to Pak army in case there is a war with India aftermath of the Mumbai terror attack. The Taliban also supported the terrorist groups active in Kashmir and other parts of India. Reportedly, in many cases the Taliban forces aided infiltration into Kashmir from across the line of control to play havoc in the country. The killing of Mehsud will likely discourage these forces at least for some time.
It is difficult at the present to predict the future of TTP after Mehsud. Reportedly there are wars between rival factions as to who will succeed the leader. As news reports suggest, two of the main contenders Hakiullah Mehsud and Mufti Wali-ur-Rehman are killed due to clashes over succession at a ‘shura’(council) meeting in Sara Rogha area of South Waziristan. Al Qaeda has shown keen interest to decide the succession issue probably with an Arab successor to lead the Taliban forces in Pakistan. If that happens it will be interesting to watch how the Pakistan Taliban will swear allegiance to Arab leader or any other leader chosen by Al Qaeda. It may be difficult for the time being for the Taliban to find a rallying force like Mehsud.
The killing of Mehsud has definitely given a fatal blow to the Taliban forces and broadly to terrorism emanating from the Pak soil. It can be called a step towards eliminating terrorism. The killing of Mehsud may bring temporary respite but the long drawn war on terrorism is far from over. The disparate Taliban groups will take some time to again rally behind a single leader. This intervening period can be used by Pakistan to pursue a calibrated policy to further weaken the Taliban. What is more important is to address the fundamentals of Talibanism in Pakistan.
There needs to be the strengthening of democratic forces and mechanisms in Pakistan. The democratic mechanisms such as separations of powers and rule of law and the strengthening of the civil society groups will definitely help counter terrorism. Otherwise the killing of Mehsud will only bring temporary respite, which afterwards will subside with the rise of the ilk of Mehsud on the south and northwest horizon of Pakistan.
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