The Syrian Civil War Rekindled?

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 14 Oct 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

9 Oct 2024 – The war in Lebanon, which began in July this year, in which Israel has been ferociously attacking and weakening Hezbollah, is likely to rekindle the Syrian Civil War, which has been virtually over for several years. On 27 September 2024, Israel killed Hezbollah’s supreme leader Hassan Nasrallah and more than 10 other generals (i.e. the military officials) in an airstrike and destroyed military bases such as arsenals. Later, Saifuddin, who became Nasrallah’s successor, and his successor were also killed by Israel. （‘We killed Nasrallah’s replacement and the next in line,’ Netanyahu tells Lebanese people）（イスラエルのレバノン攻撃し放題）

Hezbollah has suffered a major blow. The pro-Hezbollah alt-media predicts that Hezbollah, which has deep roots in the Lebanese society, will return and plunge Israel into the quagmire of occupation, but I don’t think so. （For Doubters – Hezbollah Reports That It Is Back）（Israel seeks to fix 2006 failures, while Hezbollah lies in wait）[‘MAJOR SETBACK’: This is a ‘serious blow’ to Hezbollah, says Gen. Jack Keane (bitchute.com)]

It will take a long time for Hezbollah to revive. Israel has quickly destroyed Hezbollah’s military base.  I don’t think that Israel this time will easily get stuck in the quagmire of the occupation that it almost fell into in 2006 (for now).（ヒズボラやイランの負け）（ヒズボラの勝利）

Hezbollah played an active role in the Syrian Civil War, helping the Assad regime. The Syrian government forces of the Assad regime alone were defeated by the ISIS al-Qaeda and Kurdish rebel forces supported by the US Intelligence Community, and the regime was overthrown. The Assad regime was supported by Hezbollah (Lebanese Shiite militias) and the Iraqi Shiite militias in the ground forces. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps supported the militias behind them. The Russian military supported Assad in the air force. Iranian and Russian support ended the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011, with Assad’s victory. The US started a civil war in the wake of the Arab Spring, trying to overthrow the Syrian government and plunge Syria into a permanent civil war like Libya and Afghanistan, but failed. （シリア内戦の終結、イランの台頭、窮するイスラエル）

The Syrian Civil War has been in the final stages since around 2017, but many Iranian militias such as Hezbollah continued to be stationed in Syria to monitor the rebel forces such as IS. However, in response to the Israeli attacks that have intensified since July this year, many of Hezbollah’s troops are returning from Syria to Lebanon to support their home country. （進むシリア平定、ロシア台頭、米国不信）

Almost at the same time while Israel was intensifying its attacks on Hezbollah, the US Central Command declared the resurgence of IS in Syria. The US military has ostensibly designated IS as a terrorist group and pretended to wipe it out as its enemy, but in reality, it is the US military (i.e. the Intelligence Community) that created and nurtured IS. The US military announced in July this year that the IS attacks had increased in Syria and Iraq, but the sharp increase was only in Syria, and they have decreased in Iraq. （CENTCOM says ISIS is reconstituting in Syria and Iraq, but the reality is even worse）

In Syria, as Hezbollah, which had been helping the government forces, leaves, the anti-government IS has revived with the support of the US military and is beginning to run rampant. The Israeli military bombs the Iranian arsenals and other military bases in Syria almost every day. Iran has been supplying its domestically manufactured weapons to the Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon by land. Israel bombs the Iranian arsenals and other facilities along the supply route. The United States and Israel are trying to weaken the Iranian system, revive IS, and reignite the Syrian Civil War. （Israeli Jets Mount Another Attack On Damascus）

Before the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensified, President Assad, who won the Syrian Civil War, was invited back to the Arab League, from which he had been expelled at the start of the Civil War. His reputation has been restored in the international community of the Middle East. The Arab League also lifted its hostile and terrorist designations against Hezbollah and began normalizing relations with Hezbollah.  （許されていくアサドのシリア）（Italy Becomes First G-7 Country To Restore Ties With Assad）

However, these relationships were destroyed by the Israeli attacks. The Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have only perfunctorily criticized Israel. They are all afraid of being attacked by Israel. As the war between Iran and Israel began, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, declared neutrality, not supporting either side. This is because supporting or viewing either side as their enemy could lead to the Israeli air strikes on the oil production bases of these Arabic countries. （Saudis Declare Neutrality On Iran-Israel Conflict, Not Wishing For A Repeat Of 2019 Aramco Attacks）

The Arab countries will remain silent even if their Islamic comrades Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime are attacked and crushed by the United States and Israel. Assad himself is indebted to Iran and Hezbollah, but he remains silent and does not criticize Israel. If he criticizes them, Israel’s air strikes on Iran and Hezbollah could be intensified. （Why has Syria stayed out of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict?）

As Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah seem likely to reignite the Syrian Civil War, Turkey is the one making the most dramatic change of its attitude. During the Syrian Civil War, Turkey was asked by the United States to support the anti-Assad IS-Qaeda terrorist groups created by the United States. Turkey occupied the Syrian side of the border area with neighboring Syria (around Idlib and Afrin), and made it a place where the Turkish intelligence and military support the anti-Assad IS-Qaeda forces. The IS-Qaeda forces made attacks on Syria using Idlib and other bases, and returned there when they lost. （シリア内戦 最後の濡れ衣攻撃）

When the Syrian Civil War ended with Assad’s victory and IS-Qaeda’s defeat, Turkey became the loser and had to take care of tens of thousands of the IS-Qaeda members and their families who fled to Idlib permanently. The Turkish authorities have been reducing and disposing of the IS-Qaeda members who have nowhere to go by sending them to the Western Europe, which was actively accepting them as the refugees, or as the mercenaries to make up for the shortage of the troops in the Ukrainian military. In the Western Europe, which has accepted the Syrian refugees from IS-Qaeda, the crime rate has increased, and the growing public opinion against these refugees has led to the right-wing (i.e. the far-right) parties winning elections. (It was the hidden multipolar faction of the US Intelligence Community that encouraged the Western countries to actively accept the refugees as a human rights-oriented policy, causing the self-destruction of the Western society)（シリア内戦終結でＩＳアルカイダの捨て場に困る）（The ‘Birth Pangs’ Of The New Middle East May Not Be The Ones The U.S. Has Wished For）

Having struggled as a loser in the Syrian Civil War, Turkish President Erdogan has begun to seek reconciliation with Syrian President Assad, whom he has previously viewed as an enemy. The Turkish government has had difficulty in dealing with and oppressing the Kurds who seek their independence, but the Syrian Assad regime has also had difficulty in dealing with and oppressing the Kurds who seek the independence.  Therefore, Erdogan and Assad can work together to wipe out the Kurds. (The Kurds live in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and are engaged in their separatist movements in these countries.) （Erdogan’s outreach to Assad may signal final curtain on Syria War）

However, the situation has drastically changed since Israel began its attacks on Hezbollah in the spring of 2024. In Syria, Hezbollah has returned to Lebanon, and the US Intelligence Community has revived IS.  The US is likely to reignite the Syrian Civil War. Recently, Turkish military and intelligence officials toured Idlib and Afrin in occupied the northern Syria. Turkey is now preparing to once again bolster the Syrian rebel forces of IS Qaeda, which Turkey had abandoned. Turkey is intending to have them fight against the Syrian government forces.（Turkish Foreign Policy Shifts Amid Regional Escalation）

Erdogan continues to publicly state that he wants to meet with Syrian President Assad, but behind the scenes he has resumed his hostile actions against Assad. The Syrian government believes that Erdogan is no longer willing to reconcile.（Erdogan says ready to meet with Syria’s Assad, waiting for response from Damascus）

Since the start of the Gaza War in October last year, Israel has been planning to reignite the Syrian Civil War to crush the Assad regime by fiercely attacking not only Hamas in Gaza but also Hezbollah in Lebanon, and weakening them. It seems that Israel has conveyed its intention as such to Erdogan of Turkey. This is because, since the start of the Gaza war, Erdogan has publicly supported Palestine and strongly criticized Israel, but behind the scenes he has not stopped Israel from continuing to import oil through Turkey. Some 40% of the oil consumed by Israel has been transported through the pipeline from the Baku oil fields in Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where it has been transferred to the tankers and has been sent to Israel. （Activists in Turkey continue protesting Azerbaijani oil sales to Israel despite crackdown）

If Turkey imposes sanctions on Israel, it should find some reason to stop the transfer of oil. However, the Turkish government does nothing for it and leaves it alone. Even though any political movement calling for the oil supply to Israel to be stopped has become popular in Turkey, the government ignores it. Erdogan is an Islamist, but he condones Israel’s erasure of Palestine. Why? One of the easy answers to this question is that with Israel weakening Hezbollah and Iran, Turkey may be able to support IS Qaeda again and defeat Assad, leading to a reversal victory in the Syrian Civil War. （Erdogan Calls For Greater Islamic Alliance To Combat Israeli ‘Expansionism’）

If the Syrian Civil War flares up again, the Assad regime, which can no longer receive the military support from Iran, will be overthrown. And, then, Turkey will have IS Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, both of which are Turkey’s subsidiaries, form the next government. However, will such a scenario work? Will they win? Will the new Syria be stable? There are many doubts about that scenario, but for Erdogan, who values ​​Turkey’s national interests over the Islamic and Palestinian causes, it is worth trying to reignite the Syrian Civil War, because Israel is now destroying Hezbollah, while the US Intelligence Community is reviving IS as far as he remains silent. For the Syrian people, however, it would be a terrible tragedy to see their country, which had finally become stable, could return to war. （こっそりイスラエルを助けるアラブやトルコ）

Ukraine is also involved in this story. The Turkish authorities are sending IS Qaeda fighters, who lost the Syrian Civil War and are living “without any assignment” around Idlib, as the mercenaries at the request of the Ukraine government, to make up for the shortage of the Ukrainian military forces. The Ukrainian military is sending its special forces to Idlib to provide IS Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra, etc.) with the military training. In September this year, the Ukrainian special forces and IS Qaeda invaded Syria and bombarded the Russian military facilities on the outskirts of Aleppo, 50 kilometers away. （How Will Turkiye Respond To War In Lebanon (And Renewed Destabilization Of Syria)?）[Turkey, Ukraine Importing 2000 ISIS Terrorists to Fight Russia, Gain German Citizenship | VT Foreign Policy (veteranstoday.com)]  [Al Qaeda Moving Troops from Syria to Ukraine, al Qaeda’s ‘Homeland’ to Fight Russians | VT Foreign Policy (veteranstoday.com)]

As mentioned above, the Ukraine War and the Syrian Civil War are connected. The Ukrainian authorities are also sending its special forces to the Sahel countries of Africa to gather the mercenaries. Part of the huge amount of money that the United States and Europe have provided to Ukraine has gone into Idlib, and is being used for IS Qaeda’s training and living expenses. The trained IS Qaeda fights in both Ukraine and Syria. By inviting Ukraine (and the US Intelligence Community behind it), which has a huge amount of illicit funds, Turkey is reigniting the Syrian Civil War without spending any money. （Ukrainian Intelligence ‘Actively Recruiting’ Extremists In Syria’s Idlib: Lavrov）[US-NATO Recruits Al-Qaeda Killers to Come to Ukraine – Stop the Wars at Home and Abroad! (notowar.net) ]

In the Idlib and Aleppo regions of Syria, there is an NGO called the “White Helmets” that is a part of IS Qaeda. When the Syrian government forces attack the rebel settlements, they come under the pretext of rescuing the residents of the settlements, scatter chemical weapons, falsely accuse the government forces of this, and take a video of them rescuing the residents who were affected by the chemical weapons and post it online to the world, touting that the Assad regime is a villain who uses chemical weapons. Although Assad’s government forces have not used any chemical weapons at all, the White Helmets’ self-made stunt was credulously accepted worldwide, and the OPCW concluded that the Syrian government forces used chemical weapons.（シリア政府は内戦で化学兵器を全く使っていない？）  （露イランのシリア安全地帯策） [Who are Syria’s White Helmets, and why are they so controversial? (theconversation.com)]  [Proof the White Helmets ‘Staged’ a Chemical Attack in Syria? | Snopes.com] [Syria and the OPCW | OPCW]

The White Helmets are the members of IS Qaeda and lived in Idlib after the Civil War ended, but since Ukrainian authorities came to Idlib, the White Helmets have staged chemical attacks in Ukraine and blamed them on the Russian military. This is also a collaboration between the Syrian Civil War and the Ukraine War. （White Helmets are back! RT investigates what jihadi-linked Oscar winners are up to）[Ukraine Sent Forces to Syria to Attack Russians, New War Front: Report – Business Insider]  [EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine’s HUR Special Forces Target Russian Drone Base in Syria (kyivpost.com)]

On 12 September 2024, Erdogan made a video speech at a meeting in Kiev sponsored by the Ukrainian government, in which he said Russia should return Crimea to Ukraine. This is not the first time Erdogan has made this claim, but he is usually pro-Russia and has applied to join BRICS, which Russia chairs this year, and is scheduled to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in late October. The reason why Erdogan, who is pro-Russia, suddenly started speaking anti-Russia and pro-Ukrainian is probably because Ukraine (and the United States behind it) is injecting funds into Idlib and contributing to the rekindling of the Syrian civil war as part of the Ukraine War. （Turkey’s Erdogan Demands Russia Must Return Crimea To Ukraine）（Turkiye’s BRICS bid: Strategic shift or diplomatic leverage?）[Turkey, NATO member, in process of joining BRICS – Al-Monitor: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012]

Isn’t Russia, which is fighting Ukraine, furious at this development? The Russian government is aware of this development and is angry, but is not essentially condoning it. Russia has seemed to tacitly let Turkey to do so. This is because the longer the Ukraine War continues, the more the non-American sides in the world will unite and prosper, Russia will become stronger and richer, whereas the United States and Europe will become self-destructed and lose their hegemony. That is why Putin secretly wants the continuation of the Ukraine War. Meanwhile, Ukraine is running out of the eligible adult men for the conscription and is likely to lose due to the lack of troops. Therefore, Zelensky is hoping for the peace negotiations. If IS Qaeda in Idlib joins the War as the mercenaries, the shortage of the Ukrainian troops will be alleviated, and the War will continue more. Russia tolerates it because that is in its national interest. （ウクライナ戦争の永続）[Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Will Have Lasting Implications | Council of Councils (cfr.org)]  [Russia advances as war in Ukraine sees Putin’s forces adopt new tactics amid uncertainty over U.S. support – CBS News]

Since 6 August this year, the Ukrainian forces have invaded and occupied Kursk on the Russian side. Even after two months, the Russian forces have not expelled the Ukrainian forces, who are much weaker than their own. As long as it is occupied even a little, Russia can refuse the peace negotiations with Ukraine. Zelensky recently gave up on resuming the peace talks in Switzerland. Serbia’s pro-Russian President Vucić has stated that the Ukraine War will become a permanent conflict like the Korean Peninsula after the ceasefire. If Trump is elected, he will mediate a ceasefire to make the Ukrainian War like the Korean Peninsula. （Serbian President suggests war in Ukraine will end according to Korean scenario）（Ukraine no longer anticipating peace summit to be held in November）[Russia Responds to ‘Korean Scenario’ for End of Ukraine War (msn.com) ]

It can be understood that these two interlinked wars, the Syrian Civil War and the Ukraine War, are the wars between the Axis of the US, Israel, Turkey, and IS Qaeda on the one hand, and the Alliance of Russia, Iran, the Assad regime, and Hezbollah on the other. However, it can also be understood as follows: Israel and Turkey are close to Russia. It seems that, knowing that Russia wants the continuation of the Ukraine War, both Israel and Turkey are linking the Syrian Civil War to the Ukraine War. Besides, Iran and Turkey are also close. They are actually strengthening their mutual economic cooperation. （シリアをロシアに任せる米国）[Reviving ISIS: A US weapon against the Resistance Axis — Puppet Masters — Sott.net]

Since 2015, Russia has been participating in the Syrian Civil War with its air force to protect the Assad regime, and has been successful after nearly 10 years of hard work. Will Russia allow a rekindling of the Syrian Civil War that would lead to the overthrow of the Assad regime? IS-Qaeda was founded as a US puppet, but if it takes power in Syria, won’t it view Israel as its enemy? For Israel, the realistic Assad is better than the delusional IS-Qaeda.  Assad will stop viewing Israel as Syria’s enemy if the Golan Heights are returned to his country. Israel, which occupies the Golan Heights, has hardly built any settlements there and expects to return it to Syria at some point. Considering these things, it seems that IS-Qaeda under Turkey’s umbrella will not become much stronger, and Syria will not return to another round of the Civil War.  [How the US Created the Islamic State: Talking Heads (youtube.com ]  [How the United States Enabled Al Qaeda (brookings.edu)]  [Does the US Support ISIS? Yes and Here Are 5 Times the US Actively Did (mintpressnews.com)]  [Turkey Admits Sending ISIS Terrorists to the West – GreekReporter.com]  [ISIS: US military allegedly promoting ISIS in Afghanistan (indiatimes.com)]

Note:

The underlined hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs above were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with underlined brackets [ ] with the italic letters at the end of some of the paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, the verification of the genuineness of the information in these links is unavailable for the translator. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all. Therefore, the readers are kindly requested to interpret, understand or judge the contents in those hyperlinks at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: シリア内戦の再燃？ (tanakanews.com)

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 14 Oct 2024.

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