The Future of Syria and Israel

SYRIA IN CONTEXT, 23 Dec 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

12 Dec 2024 – The Israeli military bombed and invaded Syria immediately after the Al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS (Levant Liberation Organization) overthrew the Assad regime. Israel fired 350 missiles, destroying the military bases and the arsenals of the Assad regime in various parts of Syria. Most of the Syrian government’s military equipment was destroyed. The Latakia naval base was also attacked with the Israeli missiles, destroying all of the Syrian navy’s equipment. （Israel’s frenzied reality: When destroying an enemy navy isn’t the top news story – analysis）and （Israel conducts more than 300 air strikes across Syria）

2. Israel intends to invade 10 kilometers into Syria from the Golan Heights, which it seized from Syria in the 1960s and occupied, and occupy the area 10 kilometers wide up to Quneitra as the buffer zone for Israel semi-permanently. At one point, the Israeli army invaded the buffer zone further into the interior, near Damascus, destroying Syrian military bases. Israel also declared that it would not return or annex the Golan Heights, which it had previously said it would eventually return. [United States recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel] （IDF Tanks Reach Just 25km From Damascus As Netanyahu Declares Golan Is ‘Ours Forever’）and （Syrians say Israeli army within 25km of capital Damascus）

Source of the map above: https://cdn.britannica.com/32/130632-050-CFFBD627/Golan-Heights.jpg

3. Israel argues that it has taken the security measures to thoroughly destroy weapons in Syria, because the new Syrian government is a terrorist organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda; therefore there is a possibility that it could attack Israel in the future. Iran, Turkey, and Qatar denounce the Israeli invasion was not as its security measure but as the illegal occupation of Syria. （Israel Incursion in Syria Not a Protective Move, But Full-Blown Offensive） （Why are Iran and Turkey moving to condemn Israel’s role in Syria?）and [Israel Exploits Assad’s Fall to Expand Into Syria]
4. The occupation of the Golan Heights and Quneitra is illegal under international law. At the same time, however, it is true that destroying as much of Syria’s weapons as possible will ensure Israel’s security in the situation where it is unclear whether Syria will be an enemy or a friend of Israel in the future. [Israel seizes Golan buffer zone after Syrian troops leave posts]    [Israeli PM says occupied Golan Heights Israeli ‘for eternity’]  and （‘Any sane country would do this’: Bennett denies IDF advance on Damascus, outlines defensive needs）
5. However, if we think about it further, it seems that the Israeli upper echelons may know whether Syria will be an enemy or a friend of Israel in the future. HTS, which became the new Syrian regime, has not responded to this large-scale Israeli air strikes and invasion of Syria. It is condoning the invasion. The Assad regime was hostile to Israel. HTS is also an al-Qaeda affiliate; so it should be hostile to Israel (originally). （Operation ‘Bashan Arrow’: IDF destroys over 350 Syrian Military targets）
6. Normally, the Syrian interim government of HTS would have immediately issued a statement condemning Israel’s invasion, its airstrikes, and its declaration of non-return of the Golan Heights. It would have been logical for HTS and the Israeli military to engage in combat near Damascus. Actually, however, HTS tacitly approved of Israel’s invasion as such. It is believed that HTS has quietly abandoned its previous hostility towards Israel. Therefore, this designated terrorist group seems to be no longer hostile towards Israel. Not only does HTS not consider Israel as the enemy, but it is possible that it has been in some secret contact with Israel in advance and received the support in terms of the Israeli military equipment and intelligence to achieve this government overthrow.（Iranian ambassador to Syria blames Israel for Assad’s fall）and [How HTS’ ground strategy intersected with America, ‘Israel’s’ project in Syria]
7. HTS was formerly Al-Qaeda, but Al-Qaeda originated as the Islamist Pakistani and Arab militias (“holy warriors”) fighting against the Soviet occupation forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and they were organized and supported by the CIA and other US Intelligence agencies from the beginning. Since the late 1990s, the US Intelligence Community has recast them as international terrorists, fabricating the 9/11 attacks that the Intelligence Community staged as Al-Qaeda’s crimes, and created a global system of terrorist wars. At that time, the Israeli Likud faction dominated the US Intelligence Community, creating the structure for a long-term terrorist war in the Middle East between the “US&Israel” and “Al-Qaeda”. During this period, the US was fighting a permanent war for the benefit of Israel. (Although the plan was defeated by the self-destructive Iraq War and other such actions by the hidden multipolar neo-cons and hawks who pretended to be the Likud-affiliated) When Al-Qaeda became weakened, the US Intelligence Community created ISIS and maintained the structure of the War on Terror.  [Striking Iraq: How US–Israel-ISIS-Al Qaeda attacks are ‘unifying the fronts’]    [Afghanistan: US Policy and Post 9/11 Afghan War Scenario]   [Intelligence Community Policy Guidance]   [History of al-Qaeda] and  [Did the US fund the Syrian rebels that toppled Assad?]
8. Until recently the Al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS had been living in Idlib under the control and supervision of the Turkish authorities as one of the groups of the losers in the Syrian Civil War. Given the history as mentioned above in the previous paragraph, it is not surprising that the Likud faction in the US Intelligence Community would “re-employ” this former enemy HTS as a puppet force of Israel, re-invade Syria immediately after Iran retreats, overthrow Assad, and turn Syria into an Israeli puppet state. In addtion, it is believed that the Israeli military’s destruction of all weapons remaining in Syria after the overthrow of the Assad regime was a pre-planned scenario. Syria would start anew as a militarily weak puppet state of Israel, the US, and Turkey. （Israel is reshaping the Middle East as Assad regime crumbles）
9. The “US” here does not refer to the traditional sole hegemony/British liberal elite, but Donald Trump in coalition with Likud. Trump’s Middle East policy will likely be decided by Israel, so it will be Israel that decides what will happen to Syria in the future. Considering the difference in the international political power between Israel and Turkey, I speculate that Turkey probably has a veto. Turkey’s criticism of Israel is Erdogan’s usual performance of distorting the relationship between friend and foe. Trump is a hegemony renegade. So, Putin’s Russia also contributed to the overthrow of Syria this time by playing the role of appeasing the losers Assad and Iran.  [The Blogs: President Trump and the path ahead in the Middle East] （Syria’s post-mortem: Terror, occupation, and Palestine）and  [A guide to Trump’s pro-Israel cabinet and Jewish advisers]
10. If HTS becomes the common puppet of Israel, of the US and of Turkey, then it is not essentially hostile to the Kurdish (SDF), another powerful militia group in Syria. They can coexist after skirmishes and negotiations. The Kurds are not on good terms with the Turkish-affiliated HTS and the Turkish-affiliated SNA, which is also a rival of HTS. However, both the Kurds and the Turkish have always been supported by the US and Israel. After Assad’s regime was overthrown, the SNA and the SDF clashed over control of the town of Manbij near the Turkish border, but after negotiations, the SDF made concessions and a settlement was reached. Syria is not on the verge of returning to the Civil War. [SDF Kurdish militia in north-east Syria under threat after fall of Assad] [Syrian Kurds seek to preserve autonomy following Assad’s fall]   [Why Turkey-backed Syrian National Army is at odds with US ally Syrian Democratic Forces] （US-backed and Turkish-backed forces sign truce in Syria）and  [Why Turkey-backed Syrian National Army is at odds with US ally Syrian Democratic Forces]
11. It is Israel that will decide the essential part of the future of Syria. In the long term, Israel wants to be respected by other countries in the Middle East and elsewhere, not viewed as an enemy. In the political climate of the Middle East, if a nation has sufficient military and economic power and the skills to stabilize the situation, that nation will be respected. (Meanwhile, the Western liberals and elites could be weakened. In addition, their intentions and political climate could also be ignored.) In order for Israel to be respected in the Middle East, it would be good to stabilize Syria after eliminating Iran by the military force. If Syria becomes stable, Trump, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China and Russia will be satisfied. Iran and Iraq will also find it difficult to complain. With that in mind, we could predict that HTS, an Israeli puppet, will not turn Syria into a brutal political system like the traditional IS/Al Qaeda, will not reignite the Syrian Civil War, and will create a system in which the various domestic factions cooperate and stabilize Syria in the post Assad Era. (Although the Western liberal media and alt-media, which are hostile to Israel, like to write that Syria will be in chaos in the future, that is politically biased. Nevertheless, however, it is possible that things will not go as planned and will end up in chaos.) [US goals in Syria: A stable government, ISIS in check, and return of Austin Tice]    [Blinken confirms direct contact with Syria’s rebel leaders]   and  [Jordan, U.S. call for stable Syrian transition]
12. Trump is switching the system of the US Intelligence Community that has controled the core of the US government [foreign] policy from that of the British Intelligence Community to that of the Israeli Intelligence Community. In return, Israel overthrew Assad in time for Trump’s inauguration and established a new Syrian government. If Syria begins to show signs of stabilizing around the time of the inauguration, Trump can claim it as his achievement. (In my previous article, I wrote that Trump said, “Syria has nothing to do with the United States, so we should not intervene,” and that this might lead to a worsening of the Civil War in Syria, but that statement can be reinterpreted as meaning that he would not get involved because the situation of Syria would become a civil war, but that it might have been intended to prevent the US military from intervening in Syria.) [British intelligence agencies]（シリア政権転覆の意味）[Overthrow in Syria: What Does It Mean? – Palestine Chronicle] [What Does the Fall of Assad Mean for Syria’s Future?] and  [Israel/United States : Confidential intel report shows US was concerned attorney Dershowitz had Mossad ties]
13. Trump wants to claim his achievement in ending wars and stabilizing other parts of the Middle East, not just Syria. These include promoting the Abraham Accords, which formally reconcile Saudi Arabia and Israel and establish diplomatic relations, and restarting negotiations in which the US and Europe would lift the sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear weapons development (scrap the JCPOA started by Obama and start separate negotiations). Massad Boulos, who is supposed to become Trump’s senior adviser for the Middle East, recently spoke about these things in his interview with the French magazine Le Point. （Massad Boulos, Trump’s new Middle East adviser, touts roadmap to Palestinian state）and [Vidéo – Liban, Israël, Gaza, Iran : le nouveau conseiller Moyen-Orient de Trump dévoile sa vision au « Point »]
14. Boulos says that he wants to move forward with the Abraham Accords and reconcile Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, to do so, according to Boulos, it is necessary to satisfy the condition, presented by Saudi Arabia, which is “to show a path to the establishment of the State of Palestine.” Saudi Arabia has set the establishment of a Palestinian state as the condition for the formal reconciliation with Israel. Boulos says that this does not mean that “Saudi Arabia does not reconcile with Israel unless Palestinian as a state is established.” It means, in accordance with Boulos’ interpretation, that if the roadmap for the establishment of the Palestinian statehood is shown, Saudi Arabia will reconcile with Israel. This seems to suggest that Saudi Arabia could be satisfied only if Israel presents the path for the establishment of the State of Palestine at some point.  In addition, there may be some implicit understanding that it does not matter when “at some point” is.  It is a deal that the Semitic peoples are likely to make.  [Trump’s adviser Massad Boulos pushes Palestinian state roadmap]  [Abraham Accords: Full text]   [Story | Abraham Accords Peace Institute]  [Blood Brothers: Palestinians and Jews Share Genetic Roots]  and  [Jews are the genetic brothers of Palestinians, Syrians, and Lebanese, study finds]
15. Israel, which is controlled by the Likud faction, will never acknowledge the establishment of the State of Palestine. Rather, Israel is destroying every part of Palestine one after another. There can be no permanent reconciliation if they insist that they will make peace with Israel once the Palestinian state is established. The establishment of the State of Palestinian was originally demanded by the UK and the US (to weaken Israel), and was not the idea of ​​Saudi Arabia or other Middle Eastern countries. The Saudis and other Arab leaders believe that if Palestinians can live peacefully in Jordan or Egypt, they do not need to have their own state. However, if they make peace with Israel without the condition of establishing the State of Palestine, it will mean that the Arab people have succumbed to the Israeli tyranny. To protect the Arab dignity, the Arabs argue that if Israel acknowledges the establishment of the State of Palestine at some point, then the reconciliation might be somehow possible. [British-Controlled Mandatory Palestine (1920–1948): A History] [Palestine – British Mandate, Zionism, Conflict] and   [Why Is There No Palestinian State?]
16. Trump seems to want to proceed with the Abraham Accords along these lines. Now that we have gone through the Gaza War, the overthrow of Lebanon and Syria, and the Trumpification of the US (i.e. the British were defeated and the Likud took over), it is not wise for the Arab countries to continue to reject and surround Israel under the guise of the Palestinian issue. The Arab countries living on the ground in the Middle East are realists. They are different from the Western liberals who are careless British puppets and who are “humanitarian” (which actually means dogmatic, fixated on good and evil). These liberals are already powerless. [The Trumpification of American policy] [Trumpism]   [American Authoritarianism. How Bad Will It Get Under Trump?]   and  [Wealth, influence, and class: the British elite explained]
17. The Israeli ruling party Likud had a plan to declare the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank, which would make the erasure of Palestine officially, before Trump took office (this was leaked to Seymour Hersh). However, it seems unlikely that the declaration of the annexation will be made. Likud, in response to Trump’s wishes, decided not to formalize the erasure of Palestine, but to maintain the two-state pretense of “establishing the State of Palestinian eventually,” giving Saudi Arabia the minimum level of satisfaction and dignity, and waiting for the Abraham Accords to be promoted. If Saudi Arabia reconciles with Israel, the other twelve Arab countries will follow suit. Under the Trump administration, the Arab-Israeli reconciliation could be realized. Trump’s smug face flashes. [Israel and Jordan held secret talks on Syria]   [Trump Won’t Say If He’d Allow Israel To Annex The West Bank As Gaza Suffers]   [How Trump might actually keep his controversial promise about the Middle East]  and (Ensuring the Security of Israel)
18. Trump will resume the Iran nuclear talks and lift the sanctions on Iran as the reward for Iran abandoning Hezbollah and Assad, making the concessions to Israel, and retreating (not the JCPOA created by his rival Obama, but destroying it and creating a similar Trump-style negotiation system). If Iran is lifted from the sanctions and welcomed back by the international community, and the Arab-Israeli reconciliation is realized, the next step will be reconciliation between Iran and Israel. I cannot predict if it will go that far under the Trump administration. However, considering how quickly things have developed since the start of the Gaza War last fall and the current overthrow of Assad, I believe that relevant things could change surprisingly quickly in the foreseeable future. [The Middle East’s Dangerous New Normal: Iran, Israel, and the Delicate Balance of Disorder] and [Top diplomats from US, Arab League and Turkey discuss Syria’s transition]
19. Overall, the hegemonic British power (i.e. the liberal elites) that has divided and ruled the Middle East since World War I has self-destructed over the past few years due to COVID-19, the global warming measures, Ukraine, the immigration policies, and the Awakening Movement, and the curse of dividing and ruling the Middle East has been broken. It was the Likud faction in the US Intelligence Community that caused the British to self-destruct. As the result, Israel (as well as Russia and China) have become stronger. Trump is smug, while Putin is smirking. [British foreign policy in the Middle East]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs, were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: 今後のシリアとイスラエル

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 23 Dec 2024.

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