Gaza Ceasefire and the Resumption of the Negotiation on the Abraham Accords

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 30 Dec 2024

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

19 Dec, 2024 — The current situation seems like as follows: Israel will negotiate with Hamas to ceasefire the Gaza War before Donald Trump takes office as the US President. Saudi Arabia presents the ceasefire condition of the Abraham Accords, is to acknowledge the efforts of the US and Israel, and with the start of the Trump administration, negotiations for the US-mediated Saudi-Israeli reconciliation (Abraham Accords) will resume… While I’m writing this, new stories are coming out one after another, and the stories are becoming more and more concrete, so I can’t keep up with rewriting. I apologize for the random and repeated writing. （Gaza hostage deal can be reached within a month, sources tell ‘Post’）

2. A Hamas official said on 18 December 2024 that the framework of the ceasefire agreement for the Gaza War with Israel has already been decided and can be signed by this weekend. The ceasefire is in several stages, and the first stage, which will take 45-60 days from the date of signing, will see the return of thirty hostages held by Hamas (including the bodies of those who died) to Israel. Israel will release the Palestinian political prisoners. The Israeli military (IDF) will withdraw from Gaza City to its bases in two corridors (i.e. the Netzarim Corridor, which divides northern and southern Gaza, and the Philadelphi Corridor, which divides southern Gaza from Egypt). Women and children will be allowed to return to northern Gaza. （‘Imminent’: Hostage deal could be signed by end of week, Hamas official says） and [What are Gaza’s Philadelphi, Netzarim corridors and why are they so important?]

Source of the map above: https://www.middleeasteye.net/sites/default/files/israel-demands-control-of-two-gaza-corridors-aug-2024-mee.png

3. The Gaza ceasefire is Israel’s cooperation in realizing Trump’s pledge to end wars around the world involving the United States. The Gaza ceasefire is also one of the conditions (one of the essential conditions?) for Saudi Arabia to reconcile with Israel through Trump’s mediation. A senior Saudi official recently stated that they cannot reconcile with Israel unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza. It is unclear whether this means “if Gaza ceases to operate, we can reconcile with Israel” or “if Gaza ceases to operate, and Israel allows the PA in the West Bank to function as the State of Palestine, we can reconcile.” If it is the latter, it will never materialize and the situation will remain the same as before. If it is the former, it will be the fulfillment of a fairy tale in which “everything was solved as soon as Trump took office.” (This is the result of the creators of the virtual reality shown to humanity being replaced by Likud members of the Intelligence Community from the British ones.) （Saudi Arabia, Israel peace will only happen if Gaza war ends, sources tell ‘Post’）
4. The Saudi monarchy has long made the establishment of a Palestinian state the biggest condition for reconciliation with Israel (the Abraham Accords). However, the nature of the condition has recently changed to something that is gradually easier for Israel as Israel has become stronger militarily and under US dominance. According to conventional (or rather old) common sense, the Palestinian state was the entire territory inside the 1967 border between the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital. However, Israel’s refusal to accept Palestine caused the Jewish settlements in the West Bank, encroaching on the territory, and Israel began to say that the capital could only be in the suburbs of East Jerusalem (Ab Dis village). （West Bank Annexation ‘Of Course’ A Possibility, Says Trump’s Israel Envoy Pick Huckabee）
5. In his first term, Trump proposed a dwarfed Palestinian state as Israel wanted in the Abraham Accords proposed in 2020. The UAE did not insist on a Palestinian state and normalized diplomatic relations with Israel in August 2020. The following month, Bahrain and Morocco also established the diplomatic relations with Israel. However, Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Arab world, was the only one that insisted on the establishment of the State of Palestinian and did not normalize the diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia forced the UAE, a minion of the Arab world, to reconcile with Israel, and Saudi Arabia also worked to improve informal relations with Israel, but did not establish diplomatic relations with Israel in order to pressure Israel into establishing a Palestinian state. The first step in the Abraham Accords ended with Trump being (illegally) defeated in the US election in the fall of 2020. His successor, Biden, set the goal of promoting the Abraham Accords, but in reality did nothing substital.（‘They came and demolished everything’: Palestinians fear more evictions in the West Bank under Trump）
6. (Biden’s US Democratic Party is anti-Likud because it is a British Intelligence Organization, and it has continued to support its political opponents in an attempt to overthrow Netanyahu, and nothing has progressed. It is believed that the Likud faction and the hidden multipolar faction in the US Intelligence Community tolerated the Democratic Party’s fraudulent victory in the 2020 Presidential Election in order to trap the Democratic Party and the British in the Ukraine War and destroy the system of the British and the Western liberal elite rule. If Trump had been re-elected in the 2020 Election, he would have reconciled with Putin, and even if the US Intelligence Community tried hard, he would not have been able to start a war in Ukraine.) （イスラエルＵＡＥ外交樹立：中東和解の現実路線）
7. Saudi Arabia and Israel have maintained a good relationship informally. It was Israel that wanted to make this into an official diplomatic relationship. By establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, Israel’s isolation will be alleviated and its authority throughout the Middle East will increase. Saudi Arabia thought that if they continued to pressurize Israel, it would eventually agree to the establishment of the State of Palestine, but events have since gone in the opposite direction. Israel has prioritized escaping the “Palestinian yoke” imposed by the British and American hegemony over normalizing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, and is proceeding with the erasure of Palestine. （Sacking Gallant and preparing for Trump）
8. It was said that the reconciliation between Israel and Saudi Arabia was to counter the threat of Iran, but recently Israel has been destroying the Iranian forces such as Hezbollah and Assad, which were a threat to Israel, one after another, and is now boasting that it will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities together with Trump’s US military. Isn’t it Saudi Arabia that now wants reconciliation with Israel, which has become the strongest power in the Middle East? （Israel informs Trump it could attack Iran）
9. Why did Israel suddenly become so strong? From 2020 to 2023, the British (liberal) faction of the US Intelligence Community, which had been driving the hegemony, was forced to self-destruct through the Ukraine War and the Great Reset, and the Likud faction (Israel), which no longer had an enemy, became strong in the intelligence community. The trend of Trump, who joined the Likud faction, regaining power began, and in the fall of 2023, the Gaza War began as the first step in the erasure of Palestine. Recently, using their strength to control the Intelligence Community and Trump, they have crushed Hezbollah and Assad one after another, and have risen to become the strongest force in the Middle East. （‘The time is now!’ Smotrich calls for total Israeli seizure and control of Gaza Strip and West Bank） (As an aside, the WEF, which forced the West to carry out the Great Reset, ended up being a separate force of the Likud faction and multipolar factions, while appearing to be the headquarters of liberals) （人類を怒らせるための大リセット）[Now is the time for a ‘great reset’ of capitalism | World Economic Forum] and [The Great Reset]
10. Israel has not materialized the State of Palestinian, but has almost erased it. Saudi Arabia’s pressure is completely meaningless. Israel has used its military power to sweep away its enemies in the Middle East, and the Middle Eastern powers that are weak in power politics have lost their ability to oppose Israel. Israel’s efforts to erase Palestine are tolerated. The Western liberals who have insisted on the State of Palestine and who have criticized Israel have been weakened since Trump’s reelection. （Middle East ‘mega-deal’: Trump envoy Witkoff meets MBS in Saudi visit）and [Cartography of Genocide: Why Netanyahu Erased Palestine from the Map]
11. The Saudi monarchy is a realist. The UAE, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab minions have already ignored the Palestinian cause and are on friendly terms with Israel. With no choice but to accept the reality of Palestine’s disappearance, Saudi Arabia will likely normalize the diplomatic relations with Israel in the future, as the UAE did in 2020, with the minimum condition that Israel not declare annexation of the West Bank. Trump appears to be preparing to promote reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel after taking office. Trump has asked Israel to call for a ceasefire in Gaza and postpone the declaration of annexation of the West Bank. With the conditions of the “Gaza ceasefire” and the “postponement of the declaration of annexation of the West Bank”, Saudi Arabia may agree to the reconciliation with Israel. （Annexation in the West Bank? ‘Not now,’ Trump signals）and （Trump told Netanyahu to end Gaza war, TIME ‘Person of the Year’ interview reveals）
12. As I wrote in my previous article, Trump’s special envoy Massad Bouros has consulted with the Saudi monarchy and is (seemingly) working out a path to the reconciliation with Israel, with Israel merely setting up the establishment of the State of Palestinian as a goal to strive for (almost synonymous with postponing the declaration of annexation of the West Bank). (The Future of Syria and Israel)
13. The Labor Party-affiliated forces in Israel (i.e. the British Intelligence, like the left-wing liberal parties in the Western countries) that have supported the establishment of the State of Palestine have been rapidly weakening in recent years. The powerful Likud-affiliated Netanyahu administration has completely refused to tolerate any domestic left-wing speech in support of Palestine and has begun blatant oppression. At the end of November 2024, Netanyahu deemed an editorial in the Israeli left-wing newspaper Haaretz that supported Palestine and criticized Netanyahu to be an “illegal act of treason,” and banned all Israeli government agencies from cooperating with Haaretz’s reporting. （Israeli government sanctions Haaretz, severs all ties）
14. Israel has abandoned “freedom of the press”… Actually, for several years now, media and journalism around the world that operate under the banner of freedom of the press and humanitarianism have begun to report only immature distortions and lies in various fields. It has been the logical consequence that they have been abandoned. (It seems that it was a Likud plot to distort the British media in the Intelligence World and cause them to self-destruct.) [Press Freedom in Israel Endangered by Legislative Push, Critics Say]   [Joint Statement Requesting EU Action on Israel’s Unprecedented Killing of Journalists and Other Violations of Media Freedom in Gaza]  [Israel: Freedom in the World 2024 Country Report]  and (ニセ現実だらけになった世界)

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs, were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of TMS or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.

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After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: ガザ停戦、アブラハム合意交渉再開へ

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 30 Dec 2024.

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