Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence: Technological Promises and Practical Realities

FEATURED RESEARCH PAPER, 3 Mar 2025

Vladislav Chernavskikh | SIPRI – TRANSCEND Media Service

Summary

Sep 2024 – Recent advances in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have increased state interest in leveraging AI for military purposes. Military integration of advanced AI by nuclear-armed states has the potential to have an impact on elements of their nuclear deterrence architecture such as missile early-warning systems, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and nuclear command, control and communications (NC3), as well as related conventional systems.

At the same time, a number of technological and logistical factors can potentially limit or slow the adoption of AI in the nuclear domain. Among these are unreliability of output, susceptibility to cyberattacks, lack of good-quality data, and inadequate hardware and an underdeveloped national industrial and technical base.

Given the current and relatively early stage of military adoption of advanced AI, the exploration of these factors lays the groundwork for further consideration of the likely realities of integration and of potential transparency measures and governance practices at the AI–nuclear nexus.

Introduction

The past decade has witnessed a rapid acceleration in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI). This process has been driven by advances in machine learning (ML) algorithms, which allow computer systems to ‘learn’ from data to perform tasks that would otherwise require human intelligence. Increased capabilities in areas such as computer vision, natural language processing, robotics and autonomous systems have, in turn, increased state interest in leveraging AI systems for military purposes. ML-enabled systems, for instance, are being used in ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. There are signs that advanced AI may be integrated across the full spectrum of military operations, including for threat monitoring, navigation, precision targeting, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), decision support, and offensive and defensive cyber operations.

Notably, all nine nuclear-armed states—China, France, Israel, India, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea), Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States—have demonstrated interest in the development and integration of advanced AI capabilities in their militaries, with some explicitly making AI a strategic priority. While traditional AI systems have long been a part of the nuclear weapon enterprise, the potential use of advanced AI in this context could have significant consequences for strategic stability and could increase risks of nuclear conflict. Previous research has identified a variety of ways in which AI could potentially bolster early warning and ISR, nuclear command, control and communications (NC3), delivery systems and conventional systems with counterforce potential. However, the flurry of recent developments in ML demands reconsideration of the AI–nuclear nexus.

This paper outlines the state of play of the technical possibilities for integration of advanced AI. Section II briefly discusses recent advances in AI capabilities, contextualizing them in technological terms. Section III then considers the degree to which advanced AI is being considered for integration in the nuclear domain. Section IV offers initial analysis of the determinant factors that will drive, or hinder, potential integration. Finally, section V provides some concluding thoughts on the present and future of the AI–nuclear nexus.

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Nuclear Weapons and Artificial Intelligence

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This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 3 Mar 2025.

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